Key points
- Anthropic's IPO filing, with the price range still blank, shows bankers telling investors the offering could raise $100bn or more at a valuation near $2tn.
- Anthropic's second quarter operating income of $974m at an 8% margin is its only profitable quarter, while the first half still shows a $693m operating loss.
- Cloud marketplaces delivered 48% of first half revenue, and Anthropic books those sales gross, so its top line includes the share that goes to cloud providers.
Anthropic's IPO filing shows hypergrowth at a $2tn price
Anthropic's S-1 shows a company growing at an unprecedented rate and only just turning profitable, asking public investors to pay about $2tn. The price rests on run rate figures the company defines itself and on margins that look weaker once free-tier compute and partner fees are counted. The bull case is whether use cases keep growing as fast as the price per task falls.
Takeaways
- Revenue growth is explosive and broadening. Q2 revenue was $11.6bn, up 1368% year over year, and first half revenue was $16.3bn against $1.2bn. Net revenue retention is 900%, and about 1,900 customers pay $1m or more.
- Profit is thin and reported margins flatter. Q2 operating income was $974m, an 8% margin, but the first half shows a $693m operating loss. Compute is 55% of revenue, and the host puts true gross margin in the low to high 60s, not the reported 85%.
- The $80.7bn loss is mostly accounting. The first half net loss comes mostly from marking up convertible notes as the valuation rose. Anthropic held $131.7bn of cash and short-term investments at June 30, has raised $141bn, and the filing shows no going concern language.
- Valuation multiples swing with the run rate used. Anthropic publishes no run rate. Figures ranged from $30bn in April to $47bn in May and $65bn in late July, and OpenAI said the first was overstated by $8bn. A $2tn valuation is about 101 times trailing revenue.
- Cloud partners are channel, supplier and rival. 48% of first half revenue flowed through cloud marketplaces, up from 11% in 2023. Anthropic books these sales gross and pays each cloud a fee, while Amazon, Google and Microsoft see its pricing and sell competing models.
- Founders keep control through five stock classes. Founders hold 50.1% of the vote, and the long-term benefit trust elects four of seven board members. IPO buyers get Class A shares with one vote each. Voting power passes to common holders once fewer than three co-founders remain.
- Compute commitments and chip supply drive risk. Anthropic relies on TSMC for about 90% of advanced chips and makes large compute commitments months before revenue arrives. It also reached a $1.5bn settlement over pirated books and depends on cloud partners that compete with it.
Filing details worth watching
- Anthropic dismissed Grant Thornton, the auditor it engaged in October 2025.
- In January 2026 it cut the vesting cliff on unvested options from one year to six months.
- 19% of former employees returned.
- Unrecognized stock compensation is $23.7bn over about two years, set against an operating profit near $4bn.