The Drone Startup That's Outcompeting China | Adam Bry, Skydio

Skydio turns Chinese sanctions into an American drone supply chain

Skydio spent thirteen years betting that autonomy decides the drone market, building computer-vision flight and dock-based systems long before customers wanted them. Its first product was a marvel nobody bought, so it pivoted to professional users. When China sanctioned the company and its CEO, it rebuilt its supply chain toward zero China dependence rather than seek relief. DJI's inability to launch new models in the US now leaves Skydio the opening it built toward.

Takeaways

• DJI cannot launch new drones in the US. DJI may still sell existing models in the US but cannot launch new ones now. Skydio sells only to professional users in public safety and utilities, while most DJI revenue is consumer. Bry predicts Skydio will sell more US civilian drones this year.
• Dock-based autonomy is the next platform. The market is shifting from manually flown drones, DJI's strength, to autonomous drones that live in networked charging docks. Skydio bet on this at founding and demonstrated a dock before DJI announced one, and Bry says DJI has copied features like fisheye cameras.
• Chinese sanctions forced a supply chain rebuild. Two years ago China sanctioned Skydio and Bry and seized equipment at its battery supplier's factory. Skydio rationed batteries to one per drone, rebuilt toward zero China dependence, and plans about $1bn of spending with US suppliers over five years.
• Skydio is still about 1% penetrated. Its non-military online customers fly roughly 2m flights a year, about 40,000 a week, doubling annually, and the factory will triple output this year. Bry says the market is far from cell phone maturity, so growth is not zero-sum.
• Skydio frames public safety as narrow response. Skydio began selling to public safety in summer 2020, after George Floyd, when that was anathema in Silicon Valley and polarizing internally. Bry defends it as targeted response rather than blanket always-on surveillance, and says he welcomes drones absorbing violence meant for people.
• Headcount stays flat while output grows. Skydio has kept headcount flat for years while production and flights grew, running at half to a quarter of comparable public companies' staffing. Bry criticizes hype-cycle robotics companies for underinvesting in reliability, and says Skydio takes on work with five-year paybacks.

Designing the F10 around its camera

• Skydio designed the F10 around its camera, then built the airframe. The gimbal sits on the wingtip because a center-mounted camera on a banked, orbiting fixed-wing aircraft loses its view to the wing once per revolution.
• The F10 flies two hours at up to 100 mph and launches and recovers by robot arm. Bry says it puts a drone over a rural 911 call in ten minutes where deputies might take an hour by ground.