00:10:24 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:10:24] S2: When you think about this technology, there's many different ways to play. You can go to the app layer. You can go to, you know, powered LAN, the whole thing. How do you see your clients actually getting exposure? [00:10:35] S1: Mhmm. Yes. Good one there. So we are... We manage about $9,100,000,000 on on the Carson Investment Research team for financial advisors all over the country and their clients. We, you know, we have a slight overweight to technology. I mean, XLK. You know, we're not getting too cute, too specific with it. We do have some more tactical models. We've had some semiconductor exposure. We've had some, software exposure. We have momentum. I mean, high momentum is another way potentially to play some of this. The high momentum's come back in a big way as we know. You know, we've looked the last three years, look at high momentum relative to the excess returns over the S and P 500 the last three years, even after this huge momentum almost crash that we've seen, Anthony, last month or so, still in ninety fifth percentile. So that tells you how well momentum's done. So really momentum, a little bit overweight tech, owning some software, owning some semiconductors. Those are those are ways we've done it now. Are we all in on like neo clouds and things like that? No, No. We're not getting to quite that specific of a level. That's how we're that's how we're doing it.
00:11:31 · Anthony Pompliano
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00:13:32 · Anthony Pompliano
And there has been a lot of cash that is being hoarded in many different types of vehicles. I've seen you talking on x about this. Can you explain one what's happening, but also two, why maybe you think that this is actually a bullish sign?
00:13:45 · Ryan Detrick
[00:13:45] S1: Exactly. So like, we'll keep it simple. Look at like money market flows and like cash like ETF flows on a three month rolling basis. All everybody needs to know. This is like the most we've ever seen. Okay? And why is it? Well, because, a lot of people were in some of the high flyers that came back and also a lot of people in Bonds have not had a good run. We all understand interest rates have gone up, so bonds are struggle. So people are kinda just like, you know what? Give me cash. Let me make three, four, 5% in cash. I'm done with messing around with bonds. I don't wanna mess around with the stock market. But you look at history when you have these major surges in money market and cash like ETFs, We'll take a wild guess. That usually is when the market tends to bottom. And again, then the other things like inverse ETFs, right? And we're seeing huge volume on some of these inverse, like kind of bearish ETFs if you will. Huge volume on those as well. So the inner contrarian in me keeps kind of buzzing. And then like we talked about midterms coming up, just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S and P 500, and Phil's probably shared this too. S and P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Not all of those were up a ton, I wanna be clear. But still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one year return. So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now one more on midterms if I can quickly here. Let's say the... Don't shoot the messenger everybody, please. I mean, we all see these stats and things, but you know, the Democrats probably are going to take back the house. The Senate's a little more of a coin flip. So we think there's more of a chance Republicans might defend the Senate because they had do have a much easier map. The Democrats are much harder map. So that's called a split Congress. The last 13, Anthony, we had a split Congress. The S and P 500 was up. Now now listen, there's other factors to this, but gridlock can be a good thing. And and we think, you know, it's something to think about when this election comes up here sooner than later.
00:15:35 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:15:35] S2: Now I recently saw you talking about this idea of a buying thrust. [00:15:40] S1: Yep. [00:15:40] S2: And the entire idea is that more than 50% of the S and P 500 hit a new twenty day high. This matters as 55% is a buying thrust and has never been lower a year later. Of course, this time is different with defensive areas leading.
00:15:54 · Ryan Detrick
[00:15:54] S1: Yeah. Right. Exactly. And that's that's the big question because we have a lot of stocks that are going up. It doesn't feel like it to investors that are overweight technology and communication services and neo clouds and AI and all that stuff. But there is a lot of participation. Now my take is this. Again, when we look at this, it's called the The Graph indicator, right? Jeff DeGraaff of RINMac kind of found this. When 55% of all the stocks in the S and P 500 hit a twenty day high, so call it a one month high. SPs higher like 21 or 22 times every single time a year later with some really strong returns. The last time we saw this signal was May 2025, right? When all that destruction happened around Liberation Day and everything, we started to come back. So I don't know. I mean, my take is this, the breath is a good thing. I think you're going to start to see better breath from technology. And if that happens, can hit twenty day highs, then you're going to have that signal. And that's still a a big time positive development. We're not there yet. You know, over 70% of the stocks are above their twenty day moving average. Like over, you know, well over 50% above the two hundred day moving average. I mean, breath was this story. Everyone saw how bad it was. And October 1 happened, all of a sudden breath got a lot better. And we understand what's happened though because tech has obviously lagged as everyone knows. But still, I think breath's better under the surface. And with tech coming... Likely coming back, that could signal some of these buying thrusts, which will just keep this bull market going.