00:13:32 · Anthony Pompliano
And there has been a lot of cash that is being hoarded in many different types of vehicles. I've seen you talking on x about this. Can you explain one what's happening, but also two, why maybe you think that this is actually a bullish sign?
00:13:45 · Ryan Detrick
[00:13:45] S1: Exactly. So like, we'll keep it simple. Look at like money market flows and like cash like ETF flows on a three month rolling basis. All everybody needs to know. This is like the most we've ever seen. Okay? And why is it? Well, because, a lot of people were in some of the high flyers that came back and also a lot of people in Bonds have not had a good run. We all understand interest rates have gone up, so bonds are struggle. So people are kinda just like, you know what? Give me cash. Let me make three, four, 5% in cash. I'm done with messing around with bonds. I don't wanna mess around with the stock market. But you look at history when you have these major surges in money market and cash like ETFs, We'll take a wild guess. That usually is when the market tends to bottom. And again, then the other things like inverse ETFs, right? And we're seeing huge volume on some of these inverse, like kind of bearish ETFs if you will. Huge volume on those as well. So the inner contrarian in me keeps kind of buzzing. And then like we talked about midterms coming up, just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S and P 500, and Phil's probably shared this too. S and P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Not all of those were up a ton, I wanna be clear. But still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one year return. So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now one more on midterms if I can quickly here. Let's say the... Don't shoot the messenger everybody, please. I mean, we all see these stats and things, but you know, the Democrats probably are going to take back the house. The Senate's a little more of a coin flip. So we think there's more of a chance Republicans might defend the Senate because they had do have a much easier map. The Democrats are much harder map. So that's called a split Congress. The last 13, Anthony, we had a split Congress. The S and P 500 was up. Now now listen, there's other factors to this, but gridlock can be a good thing. And and we think, you know, it's something to think about when this election comes up here sooner than later.
00:15:35 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:15:35] S2: Now I recently saw you talking about this idea of a buying thrust. [00:15:40] S1: Yep. [00:15:40] S2: And the entire idea is that more than 50% of the S and P 500 hit a new twenty day high. This matters as 55% is a buying thrust and has never been lower a year later. Of course, this time is different with defensive areas leading.
00:15:54 · Ryan Detrick
[00:15:54] S1: Yeah. Right. Exactly. And that's that's the big question because we have a lot of stocks that are going up. It doesn't feel like it to investors that are overweight technology and communication services and neo clouds and AI and all that stuff. But there is a lot of participation. Now my take is this. Again, when we look at this, it's called the The Graph indicator, right? Jeff DeGraaff of RINMac kind of found this. When 55% of all the stocks in the S and P 500 hit a twenty day high, so call it a one month high. SPs higher like 21 or 22 times every single time a year later with some really strong returns. The last time we saw this signal was May 2025, right? When all that destruction happened around Liberation Day and everything, we started to come back. So I don't know. I mean, my take is this, the breath is a good thing. I think you're going to start to see better breath from technology. And if that happens, can hit twenty day highs, then you're going to have that signal. And that's still a a big time positive development. We're not there yet. You know, over 70% of the stocks are above their twenty day moving average. Like over, you know, well over 50% above the two hundred day moving average. I mean, breath was this story. Everyone saw how bad it was. And October 1 happened, all of a sudden breath got a lot better. And we understand what's happened though because tech has obviously lagged as everyone knows. But still, I think breath's better under the surface. And with tech coming... Likely coming back, that could signal some of these buying thrusts, which will just keep this bull market going.
00:17:07 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:17:07] S2: This week, we're gonna get the fed decision. Does it matter? Does it actually impact stocks in the way that maybe it did, you know, ten years ago?
00:17:14 · Ryan Detrick
[00:17:14] S1: Well, let's put it this way. Last... He's only been, wars have been here three times. Right? Three... This is his fourth meeting. The market sold off pretty hard that day of every single time. So I don't think it's necessarily what he said. I think it's what he probably didn't say. He didn't wanna say anything. Then the market did come back. So big picture on us with the Fed. You know? Yes. They've hiked once. You look at what they're saying though. I mean, seem like they're pretty dovish. Even the most hawkish people, when you look at those fed. Plots, the most hawkish people out there are saying there's only going be two hikes next year, Anthony. I mean, I believe this is a Fed that does not really want to hike. You look at what the two year is saying, you look at Fed fund futures are saying, yeah, maybe a little bit more hawkishness is priced in. We're taking the other side of that and think they're going be a little bit more net dovish coming out. Maybe they do one more hike in December. And then we think they're probably going to take a break. And you look at '97 is the one time they did it a one and done. One hike and then done. Marker is up over 30% a year later back then. We do think they probably do one more hike this year. But I think again, what's being priced in is major, major hawkishness and we're not so sure that's the play here. So we'll see. He doesn't like to say anything. I mean, so we'll just, we'll find out. We might not learn much tomorrow when the Fed meeting happens. But the reality is I think one more hike and that's probably it.