00:09:06 · Ryan Detrick
[00:09:06] S1: Yeah. I mean, I I talked about it a second ago. The credit default swaps on a lot of these hyperscalers, NVIDIA, Amazon, obviously, some of the neo clouds. I mean, those are really, really blowing out. SpaceX. I mean, day you turn around, one of these companies are saying we're gonna spend another 10,000,000,000 here, 50,000,000,000 there. Meta's gonna sell 90,000,000,000 here to go buy... To build more data centers. I'm not saying the bears are right, but when I see all of that, it's like there's a lot of... I'm not saying it's not obvious here. There's a lot of spending going on, like more than we've ever seen, more than the railroads in the 1860s, more than the infrastructure highways in the 1950s, the space race, even more than the Internet bubble boom of the 1990s. So there's a lot of money being put at this. So we saw with Meta last week, they said, things are great. Then you look, it's like, ah, negative cash flow and the stocks down seven or 8% last Thursday. So those are the things that have our attention, but then it comes back to what we just said. Just don't go all in on tech. I mean, there's other areas, they diversified. I mean, what's happened when South Korea just crashed not that long ago, a week or two ago? What happened? Well, every single day Europe was higher. I mean, it's like just keep a diversified portfolio, stay overweight equities is one thing we've been preaching for a long time now. And I still think you're gonna benefit from it. But I don't know. I just don't think this tech wave is over. What's our buddy Dan Ives say? It's like, maybe it's one in the morning. I mean, this party still has some time left to it, think, and tech's probably gonna come back.
00:10:24 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:10:24] S2: When you think about this technology, there's many different ways to play. You can go to the app layer. You can go to, you know, powered LAN, the whole thing. How do you see your clients actually getting exposure? [00:10:35] S1: Mhmm. Yes. Good one there. So we are... We manage about $9,100,000,000 on on the Carson Investment Research team for financial advisors all over the country and their clients. We, you know, we have a slight overweight to technology. I mean, XLK. You know, we're not getting too cute, too specific with it. We do have some more tactical models. We've had some semiconductor exposure. We've had some, software exposure. We have momentum. I mean, high momentum is another way potentially to play some of this. The high momentum's come back in a big way as we know. You know, we've looked the last three years, look at high momentum relative to the excess returns over the S and P 500 the last three years, even after this huge momentum almost crash that we've seen, Anthony, last month or so, still in ninety fifth percentile. So that tells you how well momentum's done. So really momentum, a little bit overweight tech, owning some software, owning some semiconductors. Those are those are ways we've done it now. Are we all in on like neo clouds and things like that? No, No. We're not getting to quite that specific of a level. That's how we're that's how we're doing it.
00:11:31 · Anthony Pompliano
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00:13:32 · Anthony Pompliano
And there has been a lot of cash that is being hoarded in many different types of vehicles. I've seen you talking on x about this. Can you explain one what's happening, but also two, why maybe you think that this is actually a bullish sign?
00:13:45 · Ryan Detrick
[00:13:45] S1: Exactly. So like, we'll keep it simple. Look at like money market flows and like cash like ETF flows on a three month rolling basis. All everybody needs to know. This is like the most we've ever seen. Okay? And why is it? Well, because, a lot of people were in some of the high flyers that came back and also a lot of people in Bonds have not had a good run. We all understand interest rates have gone up, so bonds are struggle. So people are kinda just like, you know what? Give me cash. Let me make three, four, 5% in cash. I'm done with messing around with bonds. I don't wanna mess around with the stock market. But you look at history when you have these major surges in money market and cash like ETFs, We'll take a wild guess. That usually is when the market tends to bottom. And again, then the other things like inverse ETFs, right? And we're seeing huge volume on some of these inverse, like kind of bearish ETFs if you will. Huge volume on those as well. So the inner contrarian in me keeps kind of buzzing. And then like we talked about midterms coming up, just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S and P 500, and Phil's probably shared this too. S and P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Not all of those were up a ton, I wanna be clear. But still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one year return. So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now one more on midterms if I can quickly here. Let's say the... Don't shoot the messenger everybody, please. I mean, we all see these stats and things, but you know, the Democrats probably are going to take back the house. The Senate's a little more of a coin flip. So we think there's more of a chance Republicans might defend the Senate because they had do have a much easier map. The Democrats are much harder map. So that's called a split Congress. The last 13, Anthony, we had a split Congress. The S and P 500 was up. Now now listen, there's other factors to this, but gridlock can be a good thing. And and we think, you know, it's something to think about when this election comes up here sooner than later.
00:15:35 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:15:35] S2: Now I recently saw you talking about this idea of a buying thrust. [00:15:40] S1: Yep. [00:15:40] S2: And the entire idea is that more than 50% of the S and P 500 hit a new twenty day high. This matters as 55% is a buying thrust and has never been lower a year later. Of course, this time is different with defensive areas leading.