01:55:43 · Stacy Rasgon, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[01:55:43] S6: But you gotta remember, like, wasn't that long ago that people were looking at Google as an AI loser. [01:55:47] S0: Totally. Right? No. It changed. It it completely changed. Yeah. Completely changed. They positioned themselves very, very well. Suttrini has another post here on the 2022. I saw a lot of very smart people in 2022, fail to recognize the reality of reflexivity, I e stupid headlines that with a few hours of research could reasonably be dismissed as nothing of consequence would add fuel to the fire and result in further downside. Understanding that this dynamic works to the upside as well as the downside means that, yes, even if you know that the CDS on Oracle and Core Weave are blowing out because the CDS market is easily pushed around by a few parties trying to get cute and hedge their exposure to AI lending. You also recognize that if enough people view that CDS widening as indicative of a problem, it will become a problem. What do think about these stupid headlines? [01:56:35] S6: I I mean, headlines have certainly been more of the bane of my existence, probably over the last couple of years. Yeah. [01:56:41] S0: Yeah. [01:56:42] S6: Yes. So there have been lots of movements Yeah. From headlines that if you if you were had any depth of of subject matter expertise, you'd you'd know the headline itself didn't mean anything. Yeah. [01:56:53] S0: What do what do you fall back on? Do you go to just the earnings reports or Yeah. [01:56:57] S1: I'll give you an example [01:56:58] S6: of this. Stuff tends to correct itself over time.
01:56:58 · Stacy Rasgon, John Coogan, Tyler, Jordi Hays
[01:56:58] S6: of this. Stuff tends to correct itself over time. [01:57:00] S0: Sure. Sure. [01:57:00] S6: I mean, you get pops and I mean, I'll give you example from from my own coverage, and and this is stock that that I've had. Qualcomm announced, this was this is their headline. It wasn't like some stupid headline. Yeah. But they announced like an AI like server. And there wasn't a whole lot of information. The pressure the stock went up 20% the moment of the and and then it kinda gave it back. Yeah. As it probably but it had a you had a pretty big pop Yep. On the headline just because it was AI. Whereas if if, you know, you kinda know and by the don't get me wrong. I mean, there there's you know, we'll we'll see what happens with that with that product with them. And, you know, again, you can argue it's option value and everything, but they go up 20% on on one day was was probably overdone, and and they gave it back. You know? [01:57:38] S2: That's fine. [01:57:39] S0: Yeah. Makes sense. Corey? [01:57:41] S1: Giving it back, I feel like, has been the story of Oracle. They got this, you know, tremendous pop off the OpenAI deal. Now they've is it lower [01:57:50] S6: than it was? [01:57:51] S1: It's lower than it was before, which to me says, like, either the market doesn't believe that Yeah. It's it's real Yeah. And or that the the other reading would be it's real, but it's not gonna be ROI positive. Right?
01:58:05 · Stacy Rasgon
[01:58:05] S6: Yeah. I'm and and again At least for Oracle. Making any comments on on Oracle, I mean, those are the for for any of these investments, those are the worries that you're gonna have. Right? Either because again, especially if it's OpenAI. So Altman's committed to a tremendous amount of capacity. Mean, it's just between on the chip side between NVIDIA Broadcom and AMD, it's 26 gigawatts. Yeah. Right? And just for some context, I think the whole global data center installed electrical capacity, want to say something like 70 gigawatts, something in that ballpark, right? So it's a lot. I mean, was even making comments he wanted to deliver, what was it, a gigawatt a week I at one mean, it's a lot, right? And so you already are wondering, can he actually deliver on that or not? Those are valid questions. By the I wouldn't count Altman out like he's aggressive, but he's got like large aspirations. But then with someone like an Oracle who doesn't have the balance sheet or the income statement that some of the others do and you look at the size of the I can't even remember what it was, 400,000,000,000 or something. Was a massive step up, 300 in one quarter. Like, you you wonder where it was coming from. It it's always around, like, can they deliver it and can they pay for it? And and those are the general worries, I think, for anybody that's announcing something.
01:59:17 · John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon, Tyler
[01:59:17] S0: Yeah. How do you analysts try and dig into, you know, there's quality of earnings, quality of revenue, quality of backlog feels like an important thing to get into. Yeah. But I don't know that the contracts are available. [01:59:31] S6: They're they're not. Right? So, look, I I mean, you you talk to whoever you can and, you know, you've you've been doing this while you look for pattern recognition. I mean, look, nothing in semiconductors has ever really baked. [01:59:43] S0: Sure. [01:59:43] S6: Right? I mean, in fact, we just discovered like during COVID, lot of these companies were experimenting with non cancelable orders. [01:59:49] S2: Sure. [01:59:50] S6: And we saw what happens. It's like, yes, maybe I could contractually force my customer to take a year's worth of parts they don't need. Yeah. Am I really gonna do that? Historically, the answer was no. Yep. During COVID, for some companies, the answer was yes. And and those particular companies are are still paying for it. [02:00:05] S0: Yeah. Yeah. [02:00:06] S6: Because, okay. Great. I just took all my parts. I don't need to order anything from you for for a year. Right? [02:00:10] S0: Yeah. That makes a lot sense. [02:00:12] S6: And so I'm always a little hesitant of of of backlog and and commit. And even some of these, by the way, even with these open day ideals, so they put out big numbers, but it's not like the whole thing is committed. Like, maybe the first gigawatt at this point Totally. Which is how it should be. Yeah. [02:00:25] S0: Yeah. Yeah. No. That makes a lot of sense. It's great.
02:00:25 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Stacy Rasgon, Healey Cypher
[02:00:25] S0: Yeah. Yeah. No. That makes a lot of sense. It's great. [02:00:28] S1: Are you AGI pilled? [02:00:30] S6: No. Probably not. I'm not exactly sure what AGI means yet. You know, there's a lot of different definitions, and sometimes it tends to change. [02:00:38] S0: Well, do you find AI useful in your day [02:00:40] S6: to do. Day I have to be a little careful because from a regulatory and compliance standpoint, it's not like I can just start throwing stuff the I'm very limited. We have some internal stuff that we can use, which is [02:00:51] S0: Enterprise plan. [02:00:52] S6: Yeah. And it's ring fenced and everything. But I mean, simple stuff. Right? I mean, what it was, this NotebookLM, can literally take I could take a YouTube of this, what is it, three hour podcast and toss it in there. Yep. And it'll give me a a summary, not just a summary. [02:01:06] S1: Then we can take that summary, put it into another model, and say, make me a three hour. [02:01:10] S6: Sure. Yeah. Pretty soon, it's just AI is making and watching podcasts. Yeah. It's a slurry [02:01:14] S3: of content. [02:01:15] S6: But that's just one example. Like, so there there were there were clearly [02:01:17] S0: Yeah. [02:01:18] S6: Ways where where it's influenced my my experience in my in my workload. And I'm I'm probably on the low end, frankly, of of of of of what I could be using if again, I am I am constrained Sure. On what I can can do with this. I'd I'd love to use it more [02:01:31] S0: Yeah. [02:01:32] S6: If I could.
02:01:32 · Stacy Rasgon, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[02:01:32] S6: If I could. [02:01:32] S0: That makes a lot of sense. Well, thank you so much for coming by. Yeah. You bet. The studio. This is lot of fun. [02:01:36] S1: To have you. [02:01:37] S6: Hey. You bet. [02:01:37] S0: Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. While he's hopping off, let me tell you about Linear. Linear is a purpose built tool for planning and building products, meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product road maps. Speaking of turning things into podcasts, Christophe has some fake news here on the timeline. I love Christophe, coastal futurist. Christophe says, still crazy to me that Steve Jobs slash Apple invented the word podcast and that it's a mix of iPod and broadcast. And apparently, this isn't true. Apparently, a BBC journalist, Ben Hammersley, coined it in a 2004 Guardian article, but then it got ported back to Apple and the word and the term podcast was adopted. But it is it is funny that [02:02:26] S1: Podcasts. Podcast. It did it did come from It's always felt like a very boomer term. [02:02:31] S0: Yeah? [02:02:32] S1: And it makes sense. I I never Radio show? I never knew that it was it was a combination of [02:02:36] S0: Oh, didn't know. It was iPod plus broadcast. Yeah. Yeah. What else? [02:02:41] S1: What does that that make The [02:02:42] S0: cast casting is very, very popular. [02:02:46] S1: Anyway. What's this, article from