00:44:19 · Ezra Klein, Max Read, Erin Griffith
[00:44:19] S2: But, you know, we'll see. [00:44:21] S1: Interesting. My story is kind of a nonstory. I was shocked that, prediction markets didn't make more of a splash this week, and that's not to say that they weren't everywhere being advertised to constantly. You walk outside the Times offices, they're all over Times Square. There are Kalshi and Polymarket ads. But they seem to have largely gotten the elections right. I'm using air quotes because I think it's a it's a question of philosophy and epistemology, what prediction markets are actually doing in terms of getting things right. But unlike the Brazilian elections a few weeks ago, there wasn't... There weren't any huge swings. We didn't have any crazy stories about wins or losses. Just feels like, less of a coming out party than a sort of, a moment when prediction... When it feels like prediction markets have been folded fairly thoroughly into the elections and news making apparatus. [00:45:07] S2: I don't know. I'm a little skeptical of this whole thing. Like, go look on polymarket at the prediction market for the Mississippi senate race. [00:45:17] S1: Okay. There's... Okay. That's fair. That's that [00:45:19] S2: one is what that lie... Like, I'm gonna be [00:45:22] S4: missed that. What... Like, were they really wrong? [00:45:24] S2: Yes. But, yeah, it's more just like the way it's like the thing just all of a sudden, you get, like, the actual information, and then the two lines go like this. [00:45:30] S1: Yeah.
00:45:30 · Max Read, Ezra Klein, Erin Griffith
[00:45:30] S1: Yeah. [00:45:31] S2: Right? And Yeah. It's not like the prediction markets got something wildly right either. They're willing to swing faster in the direction of of information we're seeing. But I do kind of, [00:45:41] S4: like, track the polls quite a bit, like, in many other races. [00:45:44] S1: But, you know, really more than anything, it just felt like this was an election where we all kind of just nodded our head and said, yeah. Of course, there's prediction markets and they exist, and that's there on every TV screen all the time. I'm not saying that's good. I'm not saying it's bad, though I have my suspicions. It just was sort of an interesting feature of the [00:46:01] S4: I mean, maybe it's just that they're becoming more sophisticated and that, like, there's there's less suckers out there. And so [00:46:06] S1: I mean, I think there is smarter and smarter money. Sadly, for degenerate gamblers, don't... Not for me. Not for me. I'm an ethical journalist. I do not have any stakes in any bets on the election, but I'm happy to give tips to Hard Fork readers. Email us hardfork@nytimes.com. Thank you, Ezra and Erin, for joining us. This is, an unbelievably stimulating discussion. I had a really good time. Everybody else stick around. We've got Teddy Schleifer coming on to talk about who spent their money wisely and who spent their money poorly. I'm gonna give you a hint who's in the latter category. His initials are e m. Thank you, guys. [00:46:39] S4: Thank you. Thanks for having us.
00:46:39 · Erin Griffith, S0, S7, S6
[00:46:39] S4: Thank you. Thanks for having us. Ad[00:46:47] S0: Your financial life rarely fits between nine and five, and the question shaping your future don't follow a schedule. That's why Citi created Citi Sky, a secure AI member of your Citi wealth team built with the Gemini platform on Google Cloud. Whether expanding your portfolio or planning your future, you'll be able to access tailored wealth guidance on your time. Start building with Gemini at cloud.google.com/ai. Citi Wealth investment products and services are provided by Citigroup Global Markets Inc, member FINRA, and SIPC. Ad[00:47:19] S7: This podcast is supported by Chevron. Ad[00:47:21] S6: We rely on energy every day, whether it's the first cup of coffee in the morning, a flight home to family, or the lights that come on when you flip a switch. But have you ever wondered what it takes to make sure it's there when we need it? I'm Tanner Faust, and the energy tailgate is back with straight talk about the energy our lives and world depend on. No boardrooms, no jargon, just real conversations. This is the energy tailgate. New episodes available on Spotify and YouTube.
00:47:21 · S6, S8
Ad[00:47:21] S6: We rely on energy every day, whether it's the first cup of coffee in the morning, a flight home to family, or the lights that come on when you flip a switch. But have you ever wondered what it takes to make sure it's there when we need it? I'm Tanner Faust, and the energy tailgate is back with straight talk about the energy our lives and world depend on. No boardrooms, no jargon, just real conversations. This is the energy tailgate. New episodes available on Spotify and YouTube. Ad[00:47:51] S8: Today's AI builders need infrastructure that scales with their ambitions. IREN is a vertically integrated AI cloud platform delivering data centers, compute, and software for AI training and inference underpinned by its expansive portfolio of land and grid connected power in renewable rich regions globally. IREN's AI cloud gives direct access to NVIDIA GPUs, scalable from hundreds to thousands. For builders, that means direct access to AI compute, rapid scaling, and predictable pricing. IREN, AI cloud for the next big thing.
00:47:51 · S8, Max Read, Teddy Schleifer
Ad[00:47:51] S8: Today's AI builders need infrastructure that scales with their ambitions. IREN is a vertically integrated AI cloud platform delivering data centers, compute, and software for AI training and inference underpinned by its expansive portfolio of land and grid connected power in renewable rich regions globally. IREN's AI cloud gives direct access to NVIDIA GPUs, scalable from hundreds to thousands. For builders, that means direct access to AI compute, rapid scaling, and predictable pricing. IREN, AI cloud for the next big thing. [00:48:26] S1: Welcome back to Hard Fork. I'm here with Times reporter Teddy Schleifer to talk about winners and losers in tech from this week's elections. So Teddy, you've spent the last several months reporting on campaign money, especially as it pertains to the tech industry. In this cycle, I know from your reporting, the top 20 donors injected about $2,000,000,000 into the midterms. More than 800,000,000 of that came from the tech industry in one way or another. I wanna start by identifying the big players. When we're talking about the top tech donors, who are we talking about? [00:48:54] S3: Sure. I mean, the the number one tech donor is a guy named Elon Musk. [00:48:58] S1: Okay. [00:48:59] S3: I'm gonna [00:48:59] S1: write this down.
00:48:59 · Max Read, Teddy Schleifer
[00:48:59] S1: write this down. [00:48:59] S3: Sorry. He spent... Looks like about 470 to $500,000,000, somewhere in that range, on the election. Other tech people that folks may have heard of are Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, the founders of Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm, spent a $100,000,000 themselves. There's also people like the company Coinbase. [00:49:19] S1: Mhmm. [00:49:19] S3: Which joined Andreessen Horowitz in backing a big crypto super PAC this cycle. And there's a couple other individuals such as Greg Brockman, the president of OpenAI, who spent a ton of money on MAGA Inc, the Trump super PAC, and also has been a huge proponent of all this money supporting, quote, unquote, pro AI politicians. [00:49:40] S1: A couple years ago, it felt like a sort of conventional wisdom was coalescing among at least some people in the valley that, they were so rich. Maybe Elon in particular was so rich, they could really just spend freely and get what they wanted out of politics. Feels a little bit like a big lesson from this election is that that's not really true. Tell me a little bit about how spending has functioned here, it's maybe different from two years ago, and and how... What kind of lessons we might take away from it.