00:04:47 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:04:47] S2: And we're sitting here treeless Okay. In the Ultradome. It's crazy. It's got complacent. [00:04:51] S1: It's actually crazy. So yeah, for today, we'll rank our stories. Are they naughty stories or nice stories? Where are they going? Where are the key actors in the stories going? [00:04:59] S2: Mike Bird had a good post today. I'm tempted to put him on the nice list for it. He said [00:05:03] S1: could be This was contention. [00:05:05] S2: Could be quite a buying opportunity here if stocks bounce back. Not if they sell off further though. Ad[00:05:10] S1: Great. Great. That is my quant. Let me tell you about Console. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% ITHR and finance support giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Moving on. What else is going on [00:05:27] S2: in the market? Great. This What happened? Brian says there is a nuclear war. Just four humans remain. One is Gavin Baker. He is telling you how this is actually good for AI stocks. And Gavin responds and says, we would need a lot of robots and GPUs to rebuild civilization. [00:05:45] S1: Good point. [00:05:45] S2: He's got a point.
00:05:46 · John Coogan
[00:05:46] S1: He's got a point. I think Gavin Baker's going on a nice list. The anthropic IPO of the Financial Times AlphaVille over there is questioning where it will get out. 2,000,000,000,000 was floated originally. Then that was retreated to maybe 1.5. Now there's, you know, people going back and forth around maybe it's 1.3, maybe it's 1.2, maybe it goes back up. Who knows? Perhaps you're old enough to remember yesterday when Wall Street stocks posted their biggest gain in three months as investors bet that the Democrats' resounding victory in the US midterm elections would cause policy gridlock in Washington. Maybe you can recall when inflation fears were damped by crude by Brent crude closing yesterday's US session below a $100 a barrel for the first time since September and when a nearly 11 basis points tightening of the Franco German ten year spread signaled optimism in Europe. You might even remember when the NASDAQ composite advanced by 1.4% literally yesterday when tech mega caps outperformed amid a rotation from the weakest of AI names that meant selling was contained among semiconductor stocks, neoclass developers and politically exposed plays like SpaceX. And so you can see in this Financial Times article the heat map. There's obviously a lot more pain on the chip side than on, you know, the broader tech community. We saw that with, like, the hyperscalers. They already have a lot of data centers built. They might do very well. They have other businesses. Apple, not really affected by the midterms. Tim Cook, John Ternus, they played the they played the the whole political chaos very well, going to the movie screens that they need to go, but not getting too lazy with it and it's balanced out and the market seems to be rewarding them. But AlphaVille continues over at the Financial Times. It's a fine time to test. It's a fine time to list shares if you're anthropic. You might remember having read in the Wall Street Journal less than a day ago. But chances of an IPO have crumbled on Polymarket. It's now down to a 49% by November 24, which was the week before Thanksgiving when the latest rumors were swirling. This on Polymarket was up at 70, 75, 72%, now down at 49%, still fiftyfifty. It could happen.
00:08:04 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
And you saw some positive notes from coming out about RSI progress, a lot of debate from the meter folks, like the science, the technology, the capabilities are still advancing. But it's still just a crazy tumultuous time to go into the market. And what was a ton of optimism around the s one, really financially healthy, a lot of cash on the balance sheet, really good q two, see where q three came out. Q three was weak, but then boom, they came out with the 80,000,000,000 ARR number. Good stuff. But still, like the market is what the market is. And and and I don't think very many bankers recommend [00:08:41] S2: Yeah. [00:08:41] S1: Jumping in the water when it's this tumultuous. So we'll see where they go. It feels like fifty fifty is pretty accurate. Those of you with even longer memories might recall the numerous years that we in the media have been punting. [00:08:52] S2: Yeah. The only the only... The interesting thing about the debate around where it actually goes out at Mhmm. Is it could end up being like the the the general market sell off Mhmm. If that means that a bunch of people that have wanted to invest in in Thropic for years have an opportunity to... Like, you shouldn't have less conviction in the company now [00:09:16] S1: Yeah. [00:09:16] S2: Than you did four months ago True. Just because some infrastructure names are selling off. [00:09:22] S1: Maybe that's why I've been selling... [00:09:25] S2: If you liked this company [00:09:27] S1: They're backing up.
00:09:27 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:09:27] S1: They're backing up. [00:09:27] S2: In summer Yeah. You should love it now because you potentially are gonna get in at a massive discount [00:09:32] S1: That's true. [00:09:33] S2: To if the the sort of overall AI infant trade had continued through the end of the year. [00:09:39] S1: Yeah. Rough on the VCs who might not get to distribute at 2,000,000,000,000, they might have to distribute at 1.3 or 1,500,000,000,000 and not get the full full mark, but still very good for the ones who did get in. Yeah. Something kinda... Something about FT attaching a Google screenshot of stock market charts is kinda trashy. It is funny that they don't have, like, their own built in widget, but I think Google charts are really good. I share these all the time. And I think that they did a really good design here. And when I'm on other websites that have stock charts, it's it's sometimes like they're too cluttered or it's too pro or has candles and all these crazy things. Like, I always just wind up typing, you know, the company name and then market cap in Google and I still I still use this. Okay. But it does feel a little off brand, but I don't think this was... This is AlphaVille, which is a blog on the FT. It's not the official FT's publication workflow. So probably goes through like a slightly modified CMS or or just, you know, they can just rip whatever they want. Anyway, Claude is bearish on Anthropic. You saw this? If you ask Claude what the fair market cap... [00:10:44] S2: I think it's not bearish, it's just humble.
00:10:44 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:10:44] S2: I think it's not bearish, it's just humble. [00:10:46] S1: Humble. Yes. Okay. So Claude thinks the fair market cap for publicly traded anthropic is somewhere between 500,000,000,000 and 800,000,000,000, which is about half of where they've been rumored to be going out at. And Dizzy has a good take here. The Mahdi is too humble to say he's worth 2,000,000,000,000. Even more reason to know that he is. I love it. I love it. Anyway, I'm sure we'll be following this over the rest of the month. Couple weeks more to see if there's stabilization in the market. You know, getting out of 1.5 seems totally doable. What's James Chanos saying about all this? He says, I can't shake the feeling that selling your high beta tech stocks already down 40 to 70% to buy low or no growth consumer names at 30 to a 100 x earnings might not be so smart either. So if you're... [00:11:34] S2: Tell me that that buying Monster at a 42 PE isn't smart. Monster Energy? [00:11:42] S1: Yeah. 42 PE. That's nice. [00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right?
00:11:45 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Praveer Melwani
[00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right? [00:11:48] S1: It's crazy. Take him as still bullish. He says, the Texas governor elect does not hate data centers. When asked by CNN Jake Tapper about today's stock market decline, AI investors worries and fears about the economic consequences of her data center policy. Gina said this, we have always been pro business in the state of Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now, what has happened is data centers have moved mostly into rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans. Certainly must be some rules and laws, but Texans are being taken advantage of. She says to the difference, we have to have laws. So she wants to move forward but with a new negotiation. Tay Kim says two words, buy stocks. Let's go. [00:12:36] S4: Love it. [00:12:37] S2: Tay is... [00:12:38] S1: Eternal eternal optimist over there. [00:12:40] S2: Yeah. What did he say last night? He in in his... In the preview of his sub stack, he just said buy the dip. [00:12:48] S1: Cats pulling knife. Skill issue if you can't... [00:12:52] S2: Yeah. I mean, we we practice this thing. Obviously, we did... We caught a knife live on the show. [00:12:56] S1: Showed that it's possible.