00:08:04 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
And you saw some positive notes from coming out about RSI progress, a lot of debate from the meter folks, like the science, the technology, the capabilities are still advancing. But it's still just a crazy tumultuous time to go into the market. And what was a ton of optimism around the s one, really financially healthy, a lot of cash on the balance sheet, really good q two, see where q three came out. Q three was weak, but then boom, they came out with the 80,000,000,000 ARR number. Good stuff. But still, like the market is what the market is. And and and I don't think very many bankers recommend [00:08:41] S2: Yeah. [00:08:41] S1: Jumping in the water when it's this tumultuous. So we'll see where they go. It feels like fifty fifty is pretty accurate. Those of you with even longer memories might recall the numerous years that we in the media have been punting. [00:08:52] S2: Yeah. The only the only... The interesting thing about the debate around where it actually goes out at Mhmm. Is it could end up being like the the the general market sell off Mhmm. If that means that a bunch of people that have wanted to invest in in Thropic for years have an opportunity to... Like, you shouldn't have less conviction in the company now [00:09:16] S1: Yeah. [00:09:16] S2: Than you did four months ago True. Just because some infrastructure names are selling off. [00:09:22] S1: Maybe that's why I've been selling... [00:09:25] S2: If you liked this company [00:09:27] S1: They're backing up.
00:09:27 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:09:27] S1: They're backing up. [00:09:27] S2: In summer Yeah. You should love it now because you potentially are gonna get in at a massive discount [00:09:32] S1: That's true. [00:09:33] S2: To if the the sort of overall AI infant trade had continued through the end of the year. [00:09:39] S1: Yeah. Rough on the VCs who might not get to distribute at 2,000,000,000,000, they might have to distribute at 1.3 or 1,500,000,000,000 and not get the full full mark, but still very good for the ones who did get in. Yeah. Something kinda... Something about FT attaching a Google screenshot of stock market charts is kinda trashy. It is funny that they don't have, like, their own built in widget, but I think Google charts are really good. I share these all the time. And I think that they did a really good design here. And when I'm on other websites that have stock charts, it's it's sometimes like they're too cluttered or it's too pro or has candles and all these crazy things. Like, I always just wind up typing, you know, the company name and then market cap in Google and I still I still use this. Okay. But it does feel a little off brand, but I don't think this was... This is AlphaVille, which is a blog on the FT. It's not the official FT's publication workflow. So probably goes through like a slightly modified CMS or or just, you know, they can just rip whatever they want. Anyway, Claude is bearish on Anthropic. You saw this? If you ask Claude what the fair market cap... [00:10:44] S2: I think it's not bearish, it's just humble.
00:10:44 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:10:44] S2: I think it's not bearish, it's just humble. [00:10:46] S1: Humble. Yes. Okay. So Claude thinks the fair market cap for publicly traded anthropic is somewhere between 500,000,000,000 and 800,000,000,000, which is about half of where they've been rumored to be going out at. And Dizzy has a good take here. The Mahdi is too humble to say he's worth 2,000,000,000,000. Even more reason to know that he is. I love it. I love it. Anyway, I'm sure we'll be following this over the rest of the month. Couple weeks more to see if there's stabilization in the market. You know, getting out of 1.5 seems totally doable. What's James Chanos saying about all this? He says, I can't shake the feeling that selling your high beta tech stocks already down 40 to 70% to buy low or no growth consumer names at 30 to a 100 x earnings might not be so smart either. So if you're... [00:11:34] S2: Tell me that that buying Monster at a 42 PE isn't smart. Monster Energy? [00:11:42] S1: Yeah. 42 PE. That's nice. [00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right?
00:11:45 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Praveer Melwani
[00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right? [00:11:48] S1: It's crazy. Take him as still bullish. He says, the Texas governor elect does not hate data centers. When asked by CNN Jake Tapper about today's stock market decline, AI investors worries and fears about the economic consequences of her data center policy. Gina said this, we have always been pro business in the state of Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now, what has happened is data centers have moved mostly into rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans. Certainly must be some rules and laws, but Texans are being taken advantage of. She says to the difference, we have to have laws. So she wants to move forward but with a new negotiation. Tay Kim says two words, buy stocks. Let's go. [00:12:36] S4: Love it. [00:12:37] S2: Tay is... [00:12:38] S1: Eternal eternal optimist over there. [00:12:40] S2: Yeah. What did he say last night? He in in his... In the preview of his sub stack, he just said buy the dip. [00:12:48] S1: Cats pulling knife. Skill issue if you can't... [00:12:52] S2: Yeah. I mean, we we practice this thing. Obviously, we did... We caught a knife live on the show. [00:12:56] S1: Showed that it's possible.
00:12:56 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:12:56] S1: Showed that it's possible. [00:12:59] S2: Yeah. But we were listening to a talk yesterday and the the individual was basically saying, like, we're entering the era of stock picking. Oh, You could basically just buy anything over the last year or two Yeah. And do quite well. And maybe it's time to buy the dip because almost everything is traded down. Yeah. But you gotta pick the right ones.
00:13:26 · John Coogan
[00:13:26] S1: Yeah. I mean, that that that was the same, like, the stories that we tell about the storied tech firms, like the the really successful venture capital firms of today, all were in, no coincidence, like Google, Amazon. Right? They were in the right place through the dot com crash. So even if you wind up in a in a total reset of the market, you would you would definitely expect that there's a couple new effectively hyperscalers that make it through. Daniel Newman had this very interesting visualization of .com versus AI, tracks very closely and then gets crazy at the end. Let's pull this video up. But while we're pulling that up, let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era, unlock seamless real time experiences and new value with Cisco. I'll pull up .com versus AI. It looks identical for a minute. And .com there is on the top. The orange line doing well. Crossing, they're going back and forth, going back and forth. And then here we are today with a sell off, and then .com keeps ripping. Look at that. So from start to finish, .com produced something like... What what... What's the final? The final tally is a 100 something x, 151 x. And at the last close, this AI peak is at 16 x from the baseline. Depends on where you start the baseline. But looking at the... Some of the Korean stocks has been particularly crazy. I was looking at... I think it was the KOSPI over time is... Let me see if I can just throw this in because it's a it's a crazy, crazy chart. Let me see if I can drag this in. Uploading image. Here we go. The... Yeah. Pull up the the image. A screenshot from Google, of course. There's nothing better. Where else where else are you gonna go for a quick screenshot? Look look at this. The, this is the the Korean index. Complete store of value for like twenty years and then just completely vertical and then right back down who knows. Yeah.