00:10:44 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:10:44] S2: I think it's not bearish, it's just humble. [00:10:46] S1: Humble. Yes. Okay. So Claude thinks the fair market cap for publicly traded anthropic is somewhere between 500,000,000,000 and 800,000,000,000, which is about half of where they've been rumored to be going out at. And Dizzy has a good take here. The Mahdi is too humble to say he's worth 2,000,000,000,000. Even more reason to know that he is. I love it. I love it. Anyway, I'm sure we'll be following this over the rest of the month. Couple weeks more to see if there's stabilization in the market. You know, getting out of 1.5 seems totally doable. What's James Chanos saying about all this? He says, I can't shake the feeling that selling your high beta tech stocks already down 40 to 70% to buy low or no growth consumer names at 30 to a 100 x earnings might not be so smart either. So if you're... [00:11:34] S2: Tell me that that buying Monster at a 42 PE isn't smart. Monster Energy? [00:11:42] S1: Yeah. 42 PE. That's nice. [00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right?
00:11:45 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Praveer Melwani
[00:11:45] S2: $90,000,000,000 Right? [00:11:48] S1: It's crazy. Take him as still bullish. He says, the Texas governor elect does not hate data centers. When asked by CNN Jake Tapper about today's stock market decline, AI investors worries and fears about the economic consequences of her data center policy. Gina said this, we have always been pro business in the state of Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now, what has happened is data centers have moved mostly into rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans. Certainly must be some rules and laws, but Texans are being taken advantage of. She says to the difference, we have to have laws. So she wants to move forward but with a new negotiation. Tay Kim says two words, buy stocks. Let's go. [00:12:36] S4: Love it. [00:12:37] S2: Tay is... [00:12:38] S1: Eternal eternal optimist over there. [00:12:40] S2: Yeah. What did he say last night? He in in his... In the preview of his sub stack, he just said buy the dip. [00:12:48] S1: Cats pulling knife. Skill issue if you can't... [00:12:52] S2: Yeah. I mean, we we practice this thing. Obviously, we did... We caught a knife live on the show. [00:12:56] S1: Showed that it's possible.
00:12:56 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:12:56] S1: Showed that it's possible. [00:12:59] S2: Yeah. But we were listening to a talk yesterday and the the individual was basically saying, like, we're entering the era of stock picking. Oh, You could basically just buy anything over the last year or two Yeah. And do quite well. And maybe it's time to buy the dip because almost everything is traded down. Yeah. But you gotta pick the right ones.
00:13:26 · John Coogan
[00:13:26] S1: Yeah. I mean, that that that was the same, like, the stories that we tell about the storied tech firms, like the the really successful venture capital firms of today, all were in, no coincidence, like Google, Amazon. Right? They were in the right place through the dot com crash. So even if you wind up in a in a total reset of the market, you would you would definitely expect that there's a couple new effectively hyperscalers that make it through. Daniel Newman had this very interesting visualization of .com versus AI, tracks very closely and then gets crazy at the end. Let's pull this video up. But while we're pulling that up, let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era, unlock seamless real time experiences and new value with Cisco. I'll pull up .com versus AI. It looks identical for a minute. And .com there is on the top. The orange line doing well. Crossing, they're going back and forth, going back and forth. And then here we are today with a sell off, and then .com keeps ripping. Look at that. So from start to finish, .com produced something like... What what... What's the final? The final tally is a 100 something x, 151 x. And at the last close, this AI peak is at 16 x from the baseline. Depends on where you start the baseline. But looking at the... Some of the Korean stocks has been particularly crazy. I was looking at... I think it was the KOSPI over time is... Let me see if I can just throw this in because it's a it's a crazy, crazy chart. Let me see if I can drag this in. Uploading image. Here we go. The... Yeah. Pull up the the image. A screenshot from Google, of course. There's nothing better. Where else where else are you gonna go for a quick screenshot? Look look at this. The, this is the the Korean index. Complete store of value for like twenty years and then just completely vertical and then right back down who knows. Yeah.
00:15:42 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:15:42] S2: Peaked at 9114 now sitting at at roughly 5,000. [00:15:48] S1: 5,000. Yeah. Anyway... Jobs. [00:15:52] S2: We gotta talk about jobs. [00:15:54] S1: I'm just talking about jobs. [00:15:55] S2: Geiger says jobs in October came in higher than all 80 forecasters in Bloomberg survey predicted. Wow. Well, you shouldn't have been forecasting. You should have been predicting big Yeah. On your favorite prediction market. Yeah. Just kidding. Unemployment rate is back down to 4.1. [00:16:18] S1: Good news. [00:16:18] S2: I still have trouble getting excited about any jobs report just because it's just my default assumption is that it gets revised down massively in a few months. Sure. And so hard to hard to hit the gong or
00:16:34 · John Coogan
[00:16:34] S1: But we've had some good ones, and they haven't been revised negatively Yet. In, like, six months. And then we've also talked to the ADP folks and the Gusto and a whole bunch of the payroll companies, and they all match what's tracking. I think, in general, we we we can read this as a as a good thing. The really interesting thing is that there's 19,000 new manufacturing jobs. So for a long time, any time we got a good jobs report, was always like, okay, more health care for old people, more, you know, that's how that doesn't it feels important, but it doesn't feel like any big change structurally in the economy. It's just, okay, we're aging. We're taking care of our old people, which is important, but it's not a new area of growth. We're not going to look in... Look back in fifty years and be like, wow, the expansion in health care really changed That was what America was doing. Manufacturing on the other hand is a huge thing. Can unlock new technologies, new vehicles, new capabilities, new defense. Like there's so many different things that you can do. So very very good. We we we love to see it. A 165,000 jobs added in October. And the numbers... So the the economists were predicting 59,000 jobs. They got absolutely blown out by a 165 k. So the unemployment rate now is 4.1%. And the the the Fed is pricing in or or expecting another rate hike, which is, you know, fighting off inflation, but still strong job market. Good place to be in for The US economy. Said that the drop in the unemployment rate was especially notable given that the labor force participation rate, the share of the working age population that's either working or looking for work picked up last month, which is good. So what you always want to avoid is a situation where, yeah, the unemployment rate went down, but it's because no one's even looking for a job. Everyone's just chilling at home, relaxing, I guess. Yeah. Instead, people are people are entering the workforce. They're saying, I'm ready to work. I want a job. And they're getting jobs. Yeah. So it's that balancing factor that's really key. That's an indication that more people were entering the labor market and finding jobs. Torsten Slach, who I mentioned to Joe Wiesenthal at our New York Stock Exchange show, he's the chief economist over at Apollo.