The Compound and Friends
00:01:06 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:01:06] S0: What a coincidence that you were in town. Yeah. Incredible. Perfect timing. Perfect. [00:01:10] S2: Alright. Let's pull up. So you were here in February. Yep. And you flagged this Yep. As something to be mindful of, and of course, nobody was. But just this whole idea that things in Washington change. Yep. Things nationally change. Yep. This time, and we're gonna get into more of this, but, like, I feel like this was like somebody flipped a switch. Yep. And it only took two years because I was on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in '24 for election night. Yeah. I don't know why. [00:01:39] S1: Yeah. They had me Sounds exciting. [00:01:41] S2: This We know exactly why. This is true. Yeah. So they had the regular anchors at the desk, like the real guys, like David Faber Yeah. And Carl Quintanilla. Yeah. Like, they had, like, the the a list, and then they had this little kiddie table, the trader desk No. Next to... Like, we're off set, but, like, we had our own little table. [00:01:59] S0: Cool. [00:01:59] S2: It's, like, me, so Scott Wapner, and then, like, a bunch of us [00:02:03] S1: Yeah. [00:02:04] S2: Trading people. Tom Lee had a had, like, a buffet plate with, like... [00:02:08] S0: They had to tell him, can you move the wings? [00:02:10] S2: We're going live. But, anyway Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What I remember from that night, all of a sudden, like, the Gen Zs were into Trump. Yeah. And TikTok Yep. Went wild with 25 year olds at bars doing the Trump dance. [00:02:27] S1: Yeah. Yep.
00:02:27 · Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:02:27] S1: Yeah. Yep. [00:02:28] S2: And it just seemed like, oh my god. What a vibe shift Yeah. From '20 Yep. '20 when Biden got... But this is only two years later. Yep. And it's the polar opposite. Yep. And all it took was high gas prices. Yeah. [00:02:41] S1: No. I I think it's more than that. [00:02:42] S0: I I I definitely think, but it's like... [00:02:44] S1: But it it... It's just like you you you think about it is that it's a brand. Right? Trump is a brand. And he's like, I'm going to solve Biden inflation. [00:02:53] S2: Yes. [00:02:53] S1: And people gave him the ability to do that. Yeah. And he came in And [00:02:58] S2: he solved it with tariffs and wars. Perfect. [00:03:01] S1: Exactly. Right? And so people are saying people are saying you have one job to do, and you took your eye off the ball. This is exactly what happened to Obama in 2008. Obama had a great election in 2008, and he said, if you elect me, this financial crisis is over. Right? He can't pay for eighteen months on all this other stuff. He says, I'll fix this. Comes in and does 500,000,000,000 on health care. We didn't know if Bank of America was even gonna be standing when he did that. Right? So the American voters are like, woah. Wait a minute here. That's not why we elected you. Obama lost 63 seats in his first midterm election, eight senate seats. Trump lost 45 house seats, seven senate seats. It's almost a very similar type of election.
00:03:01 · Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown
[00:03:01] S1: Exactly. Right? And so people are saying people are saying you have one job to do, and you took your eye off the ball. This is exactly what happened to Obama in 2008. Obama had a great election in 2008, and he said, if you elect me, this financial crisis is over. Right? He can't pay for eighteen months on all this other stuff. He says, I'll fix this. Comes in and does 500,000,000,000 on health care. We didn't know if Bank of America was even gonna be standing when he did that. Right? So the American voters are like, woah. Wait a minute here. That's not why we elected you. Obama lost 63 seats in his first midterm election, eight senate seats. Trump lost 45 house seats, seven senate seats. It's almost a very similar type of election. [00:03:42] S2: So it feels like it's a overnight to me, but you're saying, like, this this kind of sea change happens more often than you think. Absolutely. And I'll tell you this.
00:03:42 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton, Michael Batnick
[00:03:42] S2: So it feels like it's a overnight to me, but you're saying, like, this this kind of sea change happens more often than you think. Absolutely. And I'll tell you this. [00:03:50] S1: I mean, Trump, the Republicans were losing districts in Texas by 35 points that, you know, that were Republican districts in special elections last year, even before the war. And so we had... This year, we had a no poll policy. We were not going to report on any polls because polls are garbage. We used hard data. How are people voting in the special elections? And what you began to see were those Republican voters starting to go, I'm not sure I'm down with this. You saw the Democratic voters go, I can't believe how bad this is. And then you had the independent voters swing the other way. And so that trend had just been slowly, slowly, slowly developing, and the war just seemed to, like, catalyze it and just put it on over. He lost [00:04:32] S2: he lost 20 points among non college educated white men Correct. Which is... I think partly explains the huge burst in the stock market because people knew there's not gonna be any storming of the capital or any election denialism this time because that army [00:04:50] S1: Yeah. They weren't there. [00:04:51] S2: They're not there anymore. Yeah. That was that was that was remarkable. [00:04:54] S0: Absolutely. I I will tell you this.
00:04:54 · Michael Batnick, Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown
[00:04:54] S0: Absolutely. I I will tell you this. [00:04:56] S1: The irony is that's the fastest cohort of the declining unemployment rate in America, which is amazing. They're... Like like, we're putting people back to work in America, and they were still like, we don't want this, And it's rural voters. And do you know what's going on in the world? Diesel, fertilizer, tariffs, and data centers. When I came on this show in February, I was in a month before, I was in a diner in Manassas, Virginia, where all these data centers are, and it's Trumpville. And everybody was complaining about data centers. And it was this moment of, wow, these are Trump voters who hate these data centers. This is not a Republican Do they [00:05:34] S2: hate the physical structures themselves, or do they hate the output of, we're going to use these data centers to get rid of all the middle class jobs? No. What do they hate [00:05:46] S0: about it? [00:05:47] S1: It's all the above. [00:05:47] S2: Okay. [00:05:48] S1: Okay. So there's a narrative on Wall Street that you're just going to solve this. You're going go into communities and pay towns off. Right? And I believed that at first. You get there, and you go into town halls, they're like, I'm going to get cancer. You're destroying the rural nature of my the rural character [00:06:01] S2: of So, my physical structures themselves. It's not just about the externality of what the data centers represent.
00:06:01 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton, Michael Batnick
[00:06:01] S2: of So, my physical structures themselves. It's not just about the externality of what the data centers represent. [00:06:09] S1: But they also represent higher inflation, so it's a proxy for that. Take my job. Making some big tech guy rich. And most people have not played with AI yet. You have. You know it. Right? That's your job is to understand how these technologies work. A lot of people have not had interaction with it yet, and they've seen The Terminator. And they're like, Woah, wait a minute here. What are we doing? They don't understand what that benefit would be for them. [00:06:33] S0: And James Cameron. [00:06:34] S2: I think the industry I think the industry has done one of the one of the most extraordinarily bad Yep. Jobs Yep. Of explaining Yes. How this technology... Like, how do you get from point A to point D Yep. Where people's lives improve? Absolutely. It's almost as if they haven't even tried.