The Compound and Friends
00:13:17 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:13:17] S2: It's my pleasure. Who who did you vote for? [00:13:21] S1: But we treat it the same way, Josh. Trying to just identify what the likely outcome is going to be, not, hey, I like this candidate or this policy. Even as we talk about data centers, right? Like, there's pros and cons. Right. And we're not rooting for anything. We just want investors to understand what the risks are and identify where those opportunities are. Okay. Hopefully, could do that. [00:13:40] S2: All right. So, let's I want to start with this. How significant is what just happened? I want to read something to you. This was on do you know Matt Stoller? [00:13:49] S1: Yeah, I do.
00:13:49 · Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:13:49] S1: Yeah, I do. [00:13:49] S2: Okay. So I don't agree with a lot of what he says, but he is the nation's leading anti monopolist. Absolutely. Probably one of the most erudite critics of big tech. Yep. And and monopolistic practices in corporate America. And I've been reading his stuff for years. He didn't write this. Lee Hepner writing on his blog wrote this, and I wanna read it to you. It's hard to overstate what happened. The actual victory for Democrats or loss for Republicans was so crushing, it was on the scale of 1974, the electoral reaction to Watergate. It's so big that the concept of red and blue states, which comes out of the two thousand election, might be over. The Democrats not only won the US Senate, taking seats in places like Kansas, Iowa, and perhaps even Alaska and Mississippi. They flipped every statewide seat and both legislative legislative chambers in Texas. Yes. They literally do not have enough staffers for the seats they now occupy. [00:14:52] S0: That's wild. Wild. [00:14:53] S2: It's like 1974 in another way too. Unlike earlier wave elections like 1982, 2006, and 2018, this one seems ideological. That is the new crop of Democrats have fundamentally different beliefs about the world than the incumbents. As Texas governor elect Gina Hinojosa argued, the core question is no longer progressive cultural politics. It's economic power. What do you think of that what do you think of that statement? [00:15:24] S1: Well, they forgot out 2010. So this happened. Alright. [00:15:27] S2: So forget everything I just said. I don't
00:15:27 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:15:27] S2: So forget everything I just said. I don't [00:15:28] S1: know what the happened. But think about this. This is this is what I think the best stat of this election. In thirty five years, there were five senate candidates who won a state the other president won two years before by more than 10 points. K? We had six of those happen Tuesday night. Wow. So it... Like, five in thirty five years. We had six happen. And it could be seven. And it could be... In one shot, one election, it could be seven. That to me is amazing. And that tells you that Trump's base did not come out. These are royal voters. It told you that the Democratic base are totally energized, and it tells you that the independent voters said, We gave you your shot. We're going the other way. Okay. Now, this can hold for a couple of cycles. I mean, those senators are going be there for six years, but we have to remember politics are cycles. Everybody was saying, look at the vibe shift after 'twenty four, and now your vibe shifts in again in two thousand and six... 'twenty six. Let me make this very clear. We've had 11 federal elections since the financial crisis, and the voters of this country have removed the party in power in 10 of those 11 elections. Depressing. That sounds extreme. It's extreme. It has not happened since the Reconstruction period of the civil war. We actually are now beating the Reconstruction period of the civil war. And so every two years, we're changing. Why? Because Facebook. Yep. It could be Facebook. Right? It could be No. I really...
00:15:28 · Daniel Clifton, Michael Batnick
[00:15:28] S1: know what the happened. But think about this. This is this is what I think the best stat of this election. In thirty five years, there were five senate candidates who won a state the other president won two years before by more than 10 points. K? We had six of those happen Tuesday night. Wow. So it... Like, five in thirty five years. We had six happen. And it could be seven. And it could be... In one shot, one election, it could be seven. That to me is amazing. And that tells you that Trump's base did not come out. These are royal voters. It told you that the Democratic base are totally energized, and it tells you that the independent voters said, We gave you your shot. We're going the other way. Okay. Now, this can hold for a couple of cycles. I mean, those senators are going be there for six years, but we have to remember politics are cycles. Everybody was saying, look at the vibe shift after 'twenty four, and now your vibe shifts in again in two thousand and six... 'twenty six. Let me make this very clear. We've had 11 federal elections since the financial crisis, and the voters of this country have removed the party in power in 10 of those 11 elections. Depressing. That sounds extreme. It's extreme. It has not happened since the Reconstruction period of the civil war. We actually are now beating the Reconstruction period of the civil war. And so every two years, we're changing. Why? Because Facebook. Yep. It could be Facebook. Right? It could be No. I really... [00:16:52] S0: I I think that's right. Right. It's social media, but go ahead.
00:16:52 · Michael Batnick, Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown
[00:16:52] S0: I I think that's right. Right. It's social media, but go ahead. [00:16:54] S1: There's definitely more information, but the economy used to grow at 3%. There was enough real income to go around for everybody. When the financial crisis came, we went from three to two, and we have stayed there for, what is it, eighteen years now. Okay? American households would be $5,600,000,000,000 richer if we had been growing at 3% rather than 2%. And we think voters just know that their standard of living isn't rising. And as we don't get that growth, and this is a global phenomenon, [00:17:23] S0: Oh, that's so just the nice. All We'll try this. [00:17:25] S2: Forget it. Let's try Try that. I agree with that. [00:17:27] S1: But here's the kicker. Now you're not getting it from your establishment. So now you're going to the populist, and I would argue we have four political parties in The United States, two in the Republican and two in the Democrat, and a generational shift as the older voters die or pass away, these newer, younger voters are coming in, and they're demanding a much different policy. [00:17:47] S2: Well, it's Democrats and DSA. Correct. And then you have MAGA and Exactly. Are there any actual Republicans left? Think about this. Duncan. [00:17:55] S1: There there are some there are some Republicans left. But they Mitt Romney? Like I wouldn't say that. Like, at that point... And, like, Mitch McConnell's no longer in the senate. Right? You see that old Republican going away. [00:18:04] S0: Wait. Why is Mitt Romney? Why no? He's not a Republican? Well, is.
00:18:04 · Michael Batnick, Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown
[00:18:04] S0: Wait. Why is Mitt Romney? Why no? He's not a Republican? Well, is. [00:18:07] S1: He said he was a Republican. [00:18:08] S2: He's not he's not politically relevant. [00:18:09] S1: He's not he's not part of the the mix anymore. And what I would argue is that in 'twenty eight, you have a real chance for the first time to have a true populist election in one hundred years in The United States, right? Like J. D. Vance versus AOC. I'm just using those names as a proxy, not as actual names, but that is a generational shift. Now you're going into the 40 group, 40 old group, and you're going on a much more populist wing. The views of J. D. [00:18:36] S2: Vance In both parties. [00:18:37] S1: In both parties, Okay. Right? That is a massive change in the political framework, and it's because we're not generating enough income for the entire population. [00:18:46] S0: Well, is the thing. I saw somebody put it this way, that it was less about left versus right Correct. And more about top versus bottom. Yep. Sure.