The Compound and Friends
00:09:00 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:09:00] S2: This guy's on fire. Yes. [00:09:02] S0: Let's go. The Compound and Friends. Oh my god. Ad[00:09:09] S2: This podcast is sponsored by Nomura Asset Management. Markets shift in ways that aren't always visible. Over the course of a century of putting clients first, Nomura has developed the global expertise and local insight to help them meet changing currents with a deeper view. Nomura's growing ETF platform is a direct reflection of this. Nomura offers high conviction, actively managed ETF strategies across regions, sectors, and asset classes to help investors navigate complex markets with confidence. To learn more about Nomura's ETF offerings, including prospectus information, visit nomuraassetmanagement.com. Investing involves risk, principal loss is possible. The Nomura Funds exchange traded funds are distributed by Foreside Financial Services LLC. Foreside Financial Services LLC is not affiliated with any Nomura entity, including Delaware Management Company and Delaware Distributors LP.
00:10:14 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
Ad[00:10:14] S0: This episode is brought to you by Federated Hermes. Active ETFs are changing the way portfolios are built, giving advisors more flexibility for their clients. But not all ETFs are built the same. Federated Hermes puts the investments in their active ETFs through a ruthless vetting process, gaming out a wide range of market scenarios so only the strongest survive. The result? A suite of 12 active ETFs spanning the full stock and bond market. Whether you use them as core building blocks or tactical allocations, you'll get the strategies you want in a convenient ETF wrapper. Simply put, Federated Hermes has the active ETFs to help you build portfolios designed to last because they've been vetted for it. Explore the full lineup at federatedhermes.com. ETFs are subject to risk and may lose value. Federated Securities Corp distributor. Before investing, carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Read this and more information in the prospectus or summary prospectus available at federatedhermes.com. [00:11:27] S2: Guys are in for a huge treat today. I'm so excited. [00:11:32] S0: So we're gonna we're gonna try to [00:11:34] S2: thread the needle here today, Dan. You're gonna help us. Yeah. This is an this is an apolitical show. Absolutely. Compound and Friends, we... I don't... I almost don't even care. I... I'm moving to Boca Raton. It's it's not... None of this is gonna touch me. [00:11:48] S0: Salt of the earth.
00:11:48 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:11:48] S0: Salt of the earth. [00:11:49] S2: None of this will ever touch me. So I'm not political. I I believe I believe in live and let live. That's my [00:11:57] S0: He just wants lower taxes. [00:11:58] S2: And leave me the alone. [00:11:59] S1: That's my whole platform. [00:12:00] S0: Free hair plants. That's all he cares about. That's single issue voting. Hair plants. [00:12:04] S2: But we but we have to talk about politics right now because we're in a moment... We're in an unprecedented moment, I think. One of the biggest post midterm reactions of all time and now within the span of forty eight hours in both directions. I mean... So we can't avoid the impact of this, and we're so fortunate because we have Daniel Clifton here. And for those of you who didn't catch, Daniel's appearance earlier this year, he flagged all this stuff for us. And, of course, the Nasdaq was going straight up. Nobody was worried about it. And now all of a sudden, the chickens have come home to roost. Yeah. Fair? Okay. Daniel is a partner and head of policy research at Baird Strategas, where he studies how policy, elections, trade, tax, health care, and energy initiatives affect the economy and financial markets. He leads the firm's Washington Policy Research team, which has been ranked among the top policy research teams on Wall Street for eighteen consecutive years. Y'all give it [00:13:12] S0: up to the man of the hour, Dan Clifton. Thank you so much for being here. Hey. [00:13:17] S2: It's my pleasure. Who who did you vote for?
00:13:17 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:13:17] S2: It's my pleasure. Who who did you vote for? [00:13:21] S1: But we treat it the same way, Josh. Trying to just identify what the likely outcome is going to be, not, hey, I like this candidate or this policy. Even as we talk about data centers, right? Like, there's pros and cons. Right. And we're not rooting for anything. We just want investors to understand what the risks are and identify where those opportunities are. Okay. Hopefully, could do that. [00:13:40] S2: All right. So, let's I want to start with this. How significant is what just happened? I want to read something to you. This was on do you know Matt Stoller? [00:13:49] S1: Yeah, I do.
00:13:49 · Daniel Clifton, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:13:49] S1: Yeah, I do. [00:13:49] S2: Okay. So I don't agree with a lot of what he says, but he is the nation's leading anti monopolist. Absolutely. Probably one of the most erudite critics of big tech. Yep. And and monopolistic practices in corporate America. And I've been reading his stuff for years. He didn't write this. Lee Hepner writing on his blog wrote this, and I wanna read it to you. It's hard to overstate what happened. The actual victory for Democrats or loss for Republicans was so crushing, it was on the scale of 1974, the electoral reaction to Watergate. It's so big that the concept of red and blue states, which comes out of the two thousand election, might be over. The Democrats not only won the US Senate, taking seats in places like Kansas, Iowa, and perhaps even Alaska and Mississippi. They flipped every statewide seat and both legislative legislative chambers in Texas. Yes. They literally do not have enough staffers for the seats they now occupy. [00:14:52] S0: That's wild. Wild. [00:14:53] S2: It's like 1974 in another way too. Unlike earlier wave elections like 1982, 2006, and 2018, this one seems ideological. That is the new crop of Democrats have fundamentally different beliefs about the world than the incumbents. As Texas governor elect Gina Hinojosa argued, the core question is no longer progressive cultural politics. It's economic power. What do you think of that what do you think of that statement? [00:15:24] S1: Well, they forgot out 2010. So this happened. Alright. [00:15:27] S2: So forget everything I just said. I don't
00:15:27 · Josh Brown, Daniel Clifton
[00:15:27] S2: So forget everything I just said. I don't [00:15:28] S1: know what the happened. But think about this. This is this is what I think the best stat of this election. In thirty five years, there were five senate candidates who won a state the other president won two years before by more than 10 points. K? We had six of those happen Tuesday night. Wow. So it... Like, five in thirty five years. We had six happen. And it could be seven. And it could be... In one shot, one election, it could be seven. That to me is amazing. And that tells you that Trump's base did not come out. These are royal voters. It told you that the Democratic base are totally energized, and it tells you that the independent voters said, We gave you your shot. We're going the other way. Okay. Now, this can hold for a couple of cycles. I mean, those senators are going be there for six years, but we have to remember politics are cycles. Everybody was saying, look at the vibe shift after 'twenty four, and now your vibe shifts in again in two thousand and six... 'twenty six. Let me make this very clear. We've had 11 federal elections since the financial crisis, and the voters of this country have removed the party in power in 10 of those 11 elections. Depressing. That sounds extreme. It's extreme. It has not happened since the Reconstruction period of the civil war. We actually are now beating the Reconstruction period of the civil war. And so every two years, we're changing. Why? Because Facebook. Yep. It could be Facebook. Right? It could be No. I really...