Prof G Markets
00:09:16 · Ed Elson
Meta's recent $25,000,000,000 stock sale was five times oversubscribed. Amazon's $25,000,000,000 bond deal drew $62,000,000,000 in orders, and Microsoft just pulled off one of the most sought after debt offerings on record. That is not the sound of silence. At the same time, some of the music is starting to go out of tune. In the past month, CoreWeave's bond yields have exploded to 15%, and many neo clouds have seen their valuations get cut in half. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that Anthropic will not receive the investment grade credit rating that it wanted. Hello, drug status. And OpenAI just slashed its funding target by $10,000,000,000. In both cases, exuberance was lower than previously anticipated. These aren't signs that the party's over, but they do suggest that the lights are coming on. Our greatest musical signal, however, will be the Anthropic IPO set to take place within the next two weeks. The expectation is that demand will be through the roof, which means the stock should rocket upward as soon as it lists. That is exciting for Anthropic, but also terrifying as anything less will be seen as evidence that something has gone wrong. The trouble with capital markets is that they're temperamental and moody. They will fall for you just as quickly as they will turn you away. That is why you should never depend on them. Yes. They have been very generous over the past few years, But that's because the MDMA has been hitting and the music has been blaring. Everyone is nice in that environment. I get the sense though that the drugs are beginning to wear off and the sun is starting to rise. As for the music, I hear it, but it's getting fainter. This edition of Simply Put was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Natalia Cabrera, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our research associate is Dan Shalon. Our design editor is Olivia Rudy Hall. Special thanks to Vivian Zhang, Audrey Hettelman, and Rohit Bohler. Thanks for listening to Simply Put by Ed Elson. You can find this piece and more on Substack. Just go to edwardelson.substack.com.
00:11:35 · S4, S5, S6, S7
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