01:11:05 · John Coogan, Tae Kim, Dylan Field
[01:11:05] S0: three years. Even if they raise capital, it feels like there might be, like, a, I don't know, a speed bump essentially. Because if they if they triple capacity and that takes two years, but everyone's sort of pricing in or expecting ten x a year or or half an oom a year. So so that's there's a mismatch there. That's that that [01:11:24] S3: they What I'm saying is right now right now, the NVIDIA valuation is trading like it's growing at 10 it's gonna grow at 10% the next year [01:11:31] S0: or two. Mhmm. [01:11:32] S3: Right? They grow at 50% the next two years. Yeah. I mean, that's definitely, you know, like, TSFCs is gonna raise our CapEx Yeah. Yeah. The next so it's like an the numbers are way off. [01:11:44] S0: Yeah. Yeah. I'm more just thinking from [01:11:46] S6: a Yeah. [01:11:47] S0: I mean, we're not gonna get perspective. [01:11:49] S3: The 10 x is not gonna happen. Yeah. But, you know, 50 to 75% the next three years, I think that can happen. Yeah. And stocks will go much higher if that happens. [01:11:59] S0: Yeah. Yeah. No. That makes sense. [01:12:01] S3: That 10 x is, you know Yeah. It's not software. I mean, this you know, you have to actually move physical atoms. [01:12:07] S0: Yeah. That makes sense. How do you how do you think NVIDIA will be positioning China exposure, China opportunity? That that was an interesting point of debate on the door cash episode.
01:12:07 · John Coogan, Tae Kim
[01:12:07] S0: Yeah. That makes sense. How do you how do you think NVIDIA will be positioning China exposure, China opportunity? That that was an interesting point of debate on the door cash episode. [01:12:18] S3: I mean, I I've given up on China. I mean, at GTC, Jensen said, you know, he got approvals on both sides, and then weeks later, like, that, you know, fell through again. Like Mhmm. It it's forget China. It's it probably isn't gonna happen. There was also another report that gaming GPUs were incrementally banned in China. Like, I I just think, like, we you you can't rely temper your expectations. I don't think China's gonna happen. [01:12:44] S0: Now relevant to the business case or the valuation, but potentially important to, like, the geopolitical story? [01:12:52] S3: I I think it's just gonna be the status quo where NVIDIA is not gonna be able to sell to China. And and anything that happens is incremental upside, but it's not gonna be a huge number anymore. Even the stuff that is allowed is is a limited number. The the way The US has, you know, approved the licenses, it's China is the one that's saying, no. We're not gonna let you sell right now. Like, it's been going back and forth between China and The US, you know, who bans what and whatever. Yeah. But even the incremental numbers, even if China starts approving it, it's it's not a huge number the way it was in the past. So I would temper expectations on China. It's just it's been so back, you know, so back and forth and unreliable the last last couple years.
01:12:52 · Tae Kim, Jordi Hays
[01:12:52] S3: I I think it's just gonna be the status quo where NVIDIA is not gonna be able to sell to China. And and anything that happens is incremental upside, but it's not gonna be a huge number anymore. Even the stuff that is allowed is is a limited number. The the way The US has, you know, approved the licenses, it's China is the one that's saying, no. We're not gonna let you sell right now. Like, it's been going back and forth between China and The US, you know, who bans what and whatever. Yeah. But even the incremental numbers, even if China starts approving it, it's it's not a huge number the way it was in the past. So I would temper expectations on China. It's just it's been so back, you know, so back and forth and unreliable the last last couple years. [01:13:31] S1: Yeah. What was your reaction to Google IO?
01:13:31 · Jordi Hays, Tae Kim
[01:13:31] S1: Yeah. What was your reaction to Google IO? [01:13:35] S3: I'm actually pretty negative on Google right now. And they're, you know, they're basically nonexistent in the whole coding agent stuff, which is like the one that's gonna that's growing exponentially right now in terms of coding agents and everyone's paying tens of billions of dollars to Anthropic. And now Codex for OpenAI, you know, they're adding a million users every few weeks. Google anti anti gravity is is nowhere to be found. You know, no one's talking about Twitter. Every anyone that talks about it says they don't like it. Mhmm. So the hardest thing, is coding agents that's gonna, you know, that's gonna automate things and do actual work for an enterprise is the biggest market that's taking off like a rocket. Google isn't there. So I mean, Google Cloud is doing great, you know. [01:14:22] S1: Yeah. Did did seeing yesterday, did it start to make more sense to you why Google had been committing so much so many resources to Anthropic? Like, do you felt do you feel like Yeah. [01:14:36] S3: Yeah. So so I think they
01:14:36 · Tae Kim, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[01:14:36] S3: Yeah. So so I think they [01:14:37] S1: At see a time the lot of at at, you know, at the time, everyone was like, wow, I wonder how Demis feels feels about this. Of course, Demis is an angel in Anthropic and and obviously, you know, thinks they're a great company and they have a good relationship. But at the time, it was like, wow, what like, they have this new model incoming. They have this massive compute advantage. They have this massive distribution advantage. They have massive data advantage. Like, they have every single advantage. They had this huge head start. [01:15:09] S0: And bend to the transformer. [01:15:09] S1: Vend it in everywhere on all these platforms from Google Workspace which is like a massively, you know, underrated distribution point to the Google, you know, docs and and sheets and basically everywhere. Like, single possible advantage in an incredibly talented team and exponential demand for tokens. And it was still, you know, somewhat surprising to see them, you know, invest invest that much in in a competitive lab. [01:15:41] S3: And they're benefiting, you know, with Google Cloud at getting that business. But I think long term strategically, I think Google has to be very careful. And I think Microsoft's experience this with OpenAI is once the value accrues to Anthropic and OpenAI, they're gonna be the power players, you know, four or five years from now and be able to push people around. I mean, we saw that when Yahoo literally used Google as their search engine. Right? Google was nobody. [01:16:09] S0: Oh, yeah.
01:16:09 · John Coogan, Tae Kim, Jordi Hays
[01:16:09] S0: Oh, yeah. [01:16:09] S3: And Yahoo put it on their on their homepage and powered their search engine, and then Google became the power player in a few years. Same thing with Netscape and Yahoo. I mean, is like history repeating itself. Netscape was everyone used Netscape. I don't know if you guys were around then, but Netscape was the browser. Right? And the reason Yahoo became powerful is because what you you clicked on that little thing on the right on the homepage and it drove people to Yahoo, the portal. Yeah. Then Google, you know, took off because they started using Google the Google search engine inside yahoo.com. Yeah. So I I think all these companies have to be be careful. Like, if you if you help OpenAI and Anthropic become super powerful and they have the best models and, you know, this thing is all a flywheel. Right? Mhmm. The more people that use it the more people that use Cloud Code, you know, Anthropy's gonna get smarter and make the better version of Cloud Code. Same thing with ChatGDP. And if you let Gemini kind of, like, lose the market right now [01:17:08] S0: Yeah. [01:17:08] S3: Like, and Anthropy gets all the business and all the revenue, like Google starts losing power in the whole tech ecosystem. [01:17:16] S1: Yeah. It's almost like the whole industry is on a merry-go-round, but they're you know, it's like a Spider Man meme with like, you know, guns. Everyone's kinda just like going around. Yeah. Very, very What are your