"The Cognitive Revolution"
01:20:56 · Nathan Labenz
[01:20:56] S0: Yeah. No doubt. Maybe in closing, I'll just cite one sentence from the METR thread on their report on acceleration. They say, the full analysis estimated how much of the acceleration and capabilities was due to compute, data, and algorithmic progress. And then in a that's first sentence. Now I'm just editorializing. In a thread in which they have caveated everything, not confident, and then, you know, it's it's very unclear how to interpret data, and they've, you know, gone around and around in circles with themselves and with Anthropic team. And, you know, there's just so much fog of war. And even the core estimate of two x is really like, they wouldn't be surprised anything 1.3 to three x. So caveats everywhere. The next sentence is is the only one I noticed so far that begins with we are confident. And the sentence is we are confident that the acceleration was not due to an increase in the growth rate of training compute. So that would suggest that in terms of government interventions, you know, we... Who knows what we'll see in terms of data center build out, and maybe we'll see a slightly slower data center build out than we would have counterfactually if the election had gone a different way. But it is striking that the acceleration that they are reporting on here is not just a raw material input story. It is an algorithm story, and it is a data quality story. And those things are being driven to a very large degree by the intelligence that we already have, which, again, is where it goes from, you know, not just bigger and bigger capital, but actual kind of recursive self improvement. So if we are gonna try to change that trajectory with the government intervention, it's probably gonna have to be more focused and pointed right at the practices of the frontier companies than something as diffuse as a broad slowdown in data center build out. Thanks for listening to the AI and the AM weekly highlights. The narration was my cloned voice, and we'd love to hear what worked and what didn't. See you in the morning.
01:23:20 · Bryan Bischof, Nathan Labenz
[01:23:20] S4: You said, wow. Because you could, because you could. The hill was there, so you climbed it short. Nobody asked you to. Nobody Don't tell me how, say what for because you could. Because you [01:25:27] S0: If you're finding value in the show, we'd appreciate it if you'd take a moment to share it with friends, post online, write a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or just leave us a comment on YouTube. Of course, we always welcome your feedback, guest and topic suggestions, and sponsorship inquiries, either via our website, cognitiverevolution.ai, or by DMing me on your favorite social network. The Cognitive Revolution is part of The Turpentine Network, a network of podcasts, which is now part of a sixteen z, where experts talk technology, business, economics, geopolitics, culture, and more. We're produced by AI Podcasting. If you're looking for podcast production help for everything from the moment you stop recording to the moment your audience starts listening, check them out and see my endorsement at aipodcast.ing. And thank you to everyone who listens for being part of the Cognitive Revolution.