Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast
00:03:54 · Shawn Wang, Jamin Ball
[00:03:54] S1: And, like, well, now we know a lot more things than we used to. [00:03:57] S0: Yeah. Totally. Totally. And just just to say up... Say it upfront, because I've been asked to say this. So these are... I work for Altimeter. We have a big position in Anthropic. Everything I say is... You know, these are all my personal views versus versus versus my firm views. But, yeah, it's a big deal. I think, you know, the big labs, OpenAI, and Anthropic seems like every quarter their numbers leak, but it's a subset of the numbers. It's not it's not everything. And now we kinda get a full open kimono view of the financial profile of, you know, one of the most important and iconic companies maybe of our lifetime. And just kind of a a quick process process refresher. They'll file an s one, probably wait about fifteen days. There's usually a minimum until they'll start a roadshow. The roadshow is when they actually start and they pitch investors, IPO investors that, you know, travel across the country, across the world to pitch the IPO. That'll usually last a week and a half, and then it will start trading publicly. So we're probably looking at [00:04:50] S1: End November.
00:04:50 · Shawn Wang, Jamin Ball
[00:04:50] S1: End November. [00:04:51] S0: Yeah. Like mid end of November, you know, kind of fifteenth to twentieth, tenth to twentieth of November of of when it actually starts trading publicly. Yeah. Do people IPO past Thanksgiving? That's like a weird dead zone to You know, between Thanksgiving and Christmas is is kind of a dead zone. Yeah. I would say, you know, post Labor Day to Thanksgiving is generally a kind of like a hotbed time for companies to go public. People are around. People are engaged. And it's Anthropic. The reality is is I I think people would people would make time for it. [00:05:25] S1: Work for it though. [00:05:25] S0: Right? Yeah. Exactly. Exactly.
00:05:25 · Jamin Ball, Shawn Wang
[00:05:25] S0: Right? Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. [00:05:27] S1: Yeah. So... Okay. That... That's the normal mechanics. I I think... And and that's it. Right? So so off the top of your head, you know, people should understand that an s one is just a filing that you have to do. OpenAI has done theirs as well, confidentially, and then then then they go public. Yep. People have filed s ones and not IPO ed. That's right. Cerebras famously did that. That's right. And then they did it again. And it... It's just part of the routine process. And you have investor day, and you have whisper rumors and all these things. Right? So as someone who's... Unless you're literally a banker or fund manager, that's all you need to know, basically. Right? There's not... There's no... This is part of the process, and there's a lot of indication to try to make it a successful IPO. Yeah. Successful is a mixed or loaded word these these days because, typically, you'll hear things like IPO is so successful, the stock popped 50% Yeah. On the first day. That's actually potentially a failure if you're Bill Gurley. [00:06:21] S0: Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. [00:06:23] S1: Who is like, well, you could have got 50% more. [00:06:25] S0: Exactly. And, you know, and just just for the audience, what what that mechanism is is in an IPO, it's like a fundraise on steroids. You're gonna go out. You're gonna raise a bunch of money at a certain price. [00:06:34] S1: How much are they raising? Like, 20,000,000,000? [00:06:36] S0: I don't think that's been [00:06:37] S1: Okay.
00:06:37 · Shawn Wang, Jamin Ball
[00:06:37] S1: Okay. [00:06:37] S0: I don't think they've decided yet. I think the rumors are, like, 75 to 100,000,000,000. Fuck. It'll be a big raise. I mean, typically, what you used to see price. I I know. What you used to see in normal IPOs was companies would float about 10 to 15% of their company, which means, like, what you would sell into the IPO would be 10 to 15%. [00:06:55] S1: Yes. And there's an employee lockup and a bunch [00:06:56] S0: of Exactly. Now it's maybe as as the companies get bigger and bigger and bigger, they might float less of the company because, hey, you can take less dilution. It's no different than a company raising a series a, b, or c. It's you're gonna raise money at a certain dilution. And, yeah, the Bill Gurley thing is, well, if the stock pops 50% on day one, why wouldn't you have just raised money at a higher price? [00:07:18] S1: Yeah. Right. [00:07:18] S0: You can take it on take it on less dilution. [00:07:20] S1: And that's a whole separate topic. Yeah. [00:07:23] S0: We've got lots of nuance to public markets and IPO [00:07:26] S1: allocation There's on conflicting incentives, and then there's the there's the chance that you actually... You don't pop. Yes. So all that, let's put it at a high level. Why now? Why IPO now? Right? Mhmm. They they could do a Stripe. They could do a Databricks. Yeah. Right? Yeah. They're not. They're IPO ing. Why?
00:07:26 · Shawn Wang, Jamin Ball
[00:07:26] S1: allocation There's on conflicting incentives, and then there's the there's the chance that you actually... You don't pop. Yes. So all that, let's put it at a high level. Why now? Why IPO now? Right? Mhmm. They they could do a Stripe. They could do a Databricks. Yeah. Right? Yeah. They're not. They're IPO ing. Why? [00:07:42] S0: Yeah. I think, I I think there's a couple reasons. Well, one, it's all speculation. It's hard to know. But I think there's a number of reasons why companies have historically chosen to go public. There's kind of the obvious, let's provide liquidity to our employees and our investors in, like, an unrestricted way. Because, of course, you know, now big companies, Databricks, Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic, kind of like tenders are are pretty regular. Like, once a [00:08:06] S1: year, you'll you'll get like... Well, if you wanna cash out, here's here's the Yeah.
00:08:06 · Shawn Wang, Jamin Ball
[00:08:06] S1: year, you'll you'll get like... Well, if you wanna cash out, here's here's the Yeah. [00:08:08] S0: But, you you'll have a... You'll be limited in how much you can sell. You know, now once a company has gone public, once they've gone through the lockup, you know, which is anywhere from... You know, it used to be just ninety day... One hundred and eighty days, six months. And now it's kind of like every company has a bespoke lockup that's like dribbled out. Some are shorter, some are longer. But it's got like unrestricted access, you can generate liquidity for your employees, help morale, whatever. Or you need a liquid currency for acquisitions. And hey, a company might be more willing to take an acquisition from a public company because the currency you're getting back is is liquid versus in a private company, maybe it isn't. [00:08:46] S1: It's made up.