Big Technology Podcast
00:21:02 · Ranjan Roy, Alex Kantrowitz
[00:21:02] S1: No, there's definitely no easy bucket. Because as you said, I think from a pure operational standpoint, the training of the next frontier model would be where I would sacrifice and just kind of build out and as I'm on team product, think that always makes more sense that there's still so much opportunity and room, but the investor story is not that. The investor story is the potential for the next frontier model and the next frontier model after that. So if you're solely trying to please investors and then you start falling behind on the benchmarks, it's a tough decision. Maybe, you know what, maybe here's my optimistic look at this. The same way innovation on the actual efficiency of compute side coming out of China and other like other areas where compute was more constrained was kind of the way things were approached. Maybe we start to see that in America right now and this election actually brings efficient computing innovation, and that's my platform. That's what I'm running on two years from now. I missed this one. [00:22:11] S0: Ranjan twenty twenty [00:22:12] S1: Efficient computing Well, [00:22:13] S0: that is what Sundar that is what Sundar said. He said the more... If you're a little bit constrained, you have to be creative and not just brute force it with compute. Yeah. So So I guess you're [00:22:23] S1: with him. That that can be our optimistic look at this, which is still not good for a lot of the economics of how the trades that have been built up. And and that's the irony
00:22:23 · Ranjan Roy, Alex Kantrowitz
[00:22:23] S1: with him. That that can be our optimistic look at this, which is still not good for a lot of the economics of how the trades that have been built up. And and that's the irony [00:22:32] S0: of it. You know, would hate that. Jensen would absolutely hate that. [00:22:35] S1: Jensen. Yeah. [00:22:39] S0: He's like doing the math. Well, they're gonna be more efficient, less GPUs. Yeah. [00:22:44] S1: I mean, you [00:22:45] S0: could get Jevons paradox. But but you can't Jevons paradox if you can't build more data centers because they're [00:22:51] S1: Then you gotta real... Oh, yeah. That's true. That's true. Then I think that... So the one thing we lose in all this is Jevons paradox. [00:23:00] S0: It turns out Jevons paradox was was not a rule. It was just just a thing. By the way, just to go one one last bit about it. You referenced it in the beginning. And I think it's really important to sort of to talk through, we have companies like Anthropic on the hook for all this compute spend, right? If the person you're supposed to spend the compute with is unable to build the project, [00:23:26] S1: you're out. [00:23:27] S0: I mean, I'm not a lawyer, but you no longer have to spend the money because like, if you want to buy 10 popsicles in the freezer breaks, and you show up and they're like, owe me $10 and it's a soup. You know, you're not obligated to buy those popsicles anymore. It's a soup. [00:23:42] S1: I want I want in like a Delaware district court. I wanna hear that argument made by a fancy lawyer from a New York City law firm. I think that
00:23:42 · Ranjan Roy, Alex Kantrowitz
[00:23:42] S1: I want I want in like a Delaware district court. I wanna hear that argument made by a fancy lawyer from a New York City law firm. I think that [00:23:56] S0: Your honor, we thought we were buying popsicles from Nebius. But as exhibit b will show you, it was a bowl of hot sugar water. [00:24:05] S1: Hot sugar water. I think I mean, that that's the kind of like irony of this. Maybe this ends up actually helping Anthropic in the near term. Maybe that becomes part of the IPO story because everyone who is a little bit concerned about those commitments now, potentially there's a way out. Even though I've always argued that they were never really legally binding, they're always kind of, you know, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, at least how I see this playing out. [00:24:33] S0: Yeah. You're sending the lawyer to to squirm out those commitments. You were ready. You were just waiting for your [00:24:40] S1: I was ready. I I didn't need a popsicle soup. I just needed... I wasn't hungry anymore, and that would get me out enough.
00:24:40 · Ranjan Roy, Alex Kantrowitz
[00:24:40] S1: I was ready. I I didn't need a popsicle soup. I just needed... I wasn't hungry anymore, and that would get me out enough. [00:24:50] S0: That's right. Turns out those popsicles aren't as nutritious as as you thought, which maybe you should have thought before you made those commitments to buy them, but whatever. We won't really litigate that contract. Let's actually talk about what this means for the Anthropic IPO. Because the reports are now that this is from the Wall Street Journal, major investors are skeptical and tropic and tropic can achieve a 1,500,000,000,000 valuation, it kind of goes back to my theory of the case that I showed that I laid out before. The only reason anthropic was considered for $2,000,000,000,001,500,000,000,000 valuation was because of the story. And now look at a lot of facts to back up the story. But again, like if some of the spokes are getting knocked out, then what do you do? So what do you think is gonna happen? [00:25:35] S1: Oh, man. Oh, man. Okay. I I just have to go off a little bit here that I don't know if you... Did you see today in the Wall Street Journal that there was a leak and a person familiar with the matter leaks that now Anthropic for October is showing an $80,000,000,000 run rate. You cannot Yes. [00:25:56] S0: I I did see not
00:25:56 · Alex Kantrowitz, Ranjan Roy
[00:25:56] S0: I I did see not [00:25:57] S1: leak financials this close to an IPO. That never happens. That is not supposed to happen. That is not how any of this works. And still after all of this, these targeted leaks that are trying to kind of reinforce a narrative that totally make every audited financial and this entire process meaningless and a joke continues. I'm sorry. This one just killed me. I thought, you know what? Your your targeted financial leaks leading up to the s one and then the s one amendment, good. You very smart communication, but still doing that after all those meetings and after all that and still kind of like obfuscating any possible chance of us having an understanding of what Anthropic's actual story is and what their financial story is. This is killing me. I I hope... Don't know. The... I was... The entire breakdown of all that is good in The US financial markets and the norms that have been established for decades upon decades just getting shattered.
00:27:06 · Alex Kantrowitz
[00:27:06] S0: But let me ask you this. Would you leak those numbers if you thought the IPO was imminent? Or would you leak those numbers because you thought given the current environment, you were postponing the IPO anyway, and you wanted to get the narrative out? Because this is an interesting headline from CNBC, Anthropic IPO announcement odds drop on Kalshi following midterms in AI self. And the last week, odds that Anthropic would announce an IPO before December fell from nearly 90% on Kalshi to 57%, which is a massive move. So what do you think? Do you think that there is a chance that Anthropic pushes this thing off? And if so, what would that implications be for the rest of the AI trade? Because again, we talked about how there are there are these two companies that are basically holding this market up. And Anthropic is one of them. And if that IPO postpones, look out.