Big Technology Podcast
00:51:21 · Alex Kantrowitz
[00:51:21] S0: Well, I think there's a debate going on this week that sort of will will... Whichever side you land on will sort of point to the answer there. So Tarek Mansour, the CEO of Kalshi, she said prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That's 98%. And Nate Silver, famed pollster, former guest on the show, said give me a break. The polls and models provided the direction in contrast to vibes and dumb insiders. And, yes, it's good that traders were smart enough to trust them, but the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly. So, basically, he's basically saying, yeah, you were able to, you know, hit your accuracy, but you're piggybacking off of the hard work of pollsters. Chris Hayes, I'm a 100% team Nate in this beef. It's obvious to anyone paying attention that the betting just moved over time towards the models. That's the info they were working off of. They didn't discover anything.
00:52:17 · Ranjan Roy
[00:52:17] S1: Well, actually, I mean, on that, I don't know if you saw this. Annie Andrews in South Carolina who had the shocking win to actually be a senator now from South Carolina over Darlene Graham. It's that kind of reflexivity concept of like the numbers driving the numbers that come after that. Again, in this case they're saying, it's the polling numbers that of course then guided the betters on to then make that prediction. I don't know if you... She... Her internal polling had actually shown her three points ahead a month ago and they hit it because they knew that if that... Because that would be kind of this like massive story around you know South Carolina, Lindsey Graham's sister in trouble. So to avoid additional resources and money coming in, they actually hid those internal numbers. Rather than letting them further kind of drive the narrative over what has come. So yeah, I do agree that the polling is critical for those kind of markets to actually find the right outcome. I don't know, it's really interesting to me in that academically, again, I think it's... Polling has always been kind of weird to me, especially with advances in technology today, the idea especially when they were still kind of like phoning people to ask them questions was crazy. By the same token, I just worry about people gambling their lives away on these things that are not supposed to be gambling apps.
00:53:58 · Alex Kantrowitz, Ranjan Roy
[00:53:58] S0: Yeah. I've said on the show, I I don't think that the gamblification of everything is is a good thing. But it is... Look, if you're watching it, it's a good... It's a useful data point. So you can see it. You can see it in real time. You can't see polls in real time. So they got Nate Silver on that front. Alright, Ranjan. It was great speaking with you. We did it. We made it work. I'll make sure that I'll have a cool furniture from now on to... I didn't realize it made [00:54:20] S1: me laugh. I can see you gambling on that. That's a good gambling chair, colonization chair, cigar chair, all of the above. That that is the most multifunctional chair for any vice you could think of. [00:54:33] S0: Yeah. Including speaking of you. [00:54:37] S1: On that note. On that note. [00:54:40] S0: On that note. I I do wanna say on air, thank you for for coming out to the marathon. And I know I was too fast, but I appreciate you coming out and supporting. [00:54:48] S1: You made it. You made it, man. Congrats. [00:54:52] S0: Finished. Knees are knees are barely working, but, yeah, I appreciate you being that [00:54:56] S1: great. Also a good marathon recovery chair. It is just good for everything. Mhmm. But [00:55:03] S0: I... [00:55:03] S1: I'm just bring... I'm bringing it back. At this point, I have to buy it and ship it. So it's not part of the show. It's it's this... It's three of us, you and this chair.
00:55:03 · Ranjan Roy, Alex Kantrowitz
[00:55:03] S1: I'm just bring... I'm bringing it back. At this point, I have to buy it and ship it. So it's not part of the show. It's it's this... It's three of us, you and this chair. [00:55:13] S0: Alright, Ranjan. Have a great weekend. Thanks for coming Alright. On Thanks everybody for listening and watching. We'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.