All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
01:07:11 · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis
[01:07:11] S2: And we already slippery have slope. You're saying it's [01:07:13] S0: a slippery slope. Yes. Okay. Sacks. But I do think, you know, just like the p doom where people say ten percent of people are gonna die, I like to put a percentage on it. What are the chances of this happening, Chamath, or or Sacks? You... You're the closest to this, but, you know, haven't been the czar. Do do you think that this is in the realm of possibility what what Friedberg's describing? If so, maybe you could put a percentage likelihood of it happening. And then what is your take on data centers and the net exporter, net importer of tokens potentiality here?
01:07:42 · David Sacks
[01:07:42] S1: Okay. So it's a 100% that Democrats are gonna make a major push for AI legislation in the next congress. The question is what that looks like. Yes. And I don't think you have to speculate too much to understand where it's going. I believe that Democrats wanna create a surveillance and censorship state that's turbocharged by superintelligence. I mean, that's ultimately the end state. How do you get there? You create a department, a federal department of AI. You require that all the so called frontier models have to be reviewed and approved by that. The regulators give their notes on it. You can't get a model released unless you address their concerns. And their harms will include all the things that the government is telling us that social media companies should be concerned about, like disinformation and misinformation and dissident thought. All the things that the government was pressuring the social media companies to crack down on and censor during COVID, I mean, how quickly we forget all of this, they're gonna basically reenact that whole regime again using AI. And it's gonna be infinitely more powerful because we're talking about super intelligence here. So I I do believe that that is the regime that we're headed towards. So it may not be exactly the the version that Friedberg's talking about where Friedberg's saying that only the government can use the tools. I don't think that'll be the case.
01:09:02 · David Friedberg, David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:09:02] S3: Not not that binary Sacks. Sorry. Meant like obviously, they're they're gonna get access to models and capabilities that the public doesn't. At the end of the day, any amount of distinction between [01:09:11] S1: Oh, for sure they [01:09:12] S3: will. State. What a central state actor gets and what the general public gets is really where that distinction of power arises, and it's really what makes it difficult for the founding principles to persist. [01:09:22] S0: Which would be a quasi de facto, nationalization of the technology here, Chamath. So what what... What's your take on this? I'm gonna force everybody to... And and try to pin you guys down a little bit. You think that this nationalization of the technology, the government having the best version, everybody else, in The United States, corporations, individuals having 60, 70, 80% of that version? You think that's a possibility here? [01:09:44] S2: No. I don't think this is the priority. Again, I think people will get animated about this issue, but I don't think this matters. And I think that to the extent that people legislate an oligopoly, it'll further entrench economic power, and I think that that's counter to what these people want. So I think when they put the... They connect the dots, I don't think that that's what's going to get legislated. I don't think they have the energy for that. And I think at
01:09:44 · Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[01:09:44] S2: No. I don't think this is the priority. Again, I think people will get animated about this issue, but I don't think this matters. And I think that to the extent that people legislate an oligopoly, it'll further entrench economic power, and I think that that's counter to what these people want. So I think when they put the... They connect the dots, I don't think that that's what's going to get legislated. I don't think they have the energy for that. And I think at [01:10:07] S1: What's the end gonna get legislated is the quid pro quo, okay? The quid pro quo is this, the government gets more power and the duopoly of closed model companies get more regulatory capture or moats around their business. That's gonna be the quid pro quo. The government's gonna come in. The Democratic Congress is gonna say, look, we have to regulate this. It's unsafe. What do you think those companies are gonna do? You think they're gonna say, no, you can't do that? They're gonna say, okay, You know, let's work together on this. [01:10:36] S2: I think what's gonna happen is, [01:10:37] S1: government ends up with more power, and those companies end up with regulatory protection. [01:10:41] S0: Moff, go ahead.
01:10:41 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:10:41] S0: Moff, go ahead. [01:10:41] S2: I don't think so. I think... Yeah. I think that if... To the extent that anybody legislates AI, I think it's gonna be broad based and include a lot of coverage around data centers and AI factories. And to the extent that that happens, maybe you'll get some regulatory capture on the one end, but you're gonna constrain the supply so severely on the other that the that the real people that will be in control of it are Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX. And so you have to remember, the foundational model companies are not home free. What does home free mean? That they have a fortress balance sheet, a profitable business model, and and quasi infinite compute for their own ambitions. And right now, they are renters. And the renter class in data centers as of Tuesday is very much at risk. And so if anything, I think what's gonna happen is all the renter classes will get co opted. For example, I don't know if you guys saw today, but Google just took over a Crusoe data center. They co opted the renter. They're like, you're gone. We're gonna take it over. [01:11:48] S0: They did?
01:11:48 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:11:48] S0: They did? [01:11:49] S2: Yeah. So why is that happening? It's because they have all of the core critical ingredients, specifically the power. So I think even a reg capture campaign can only work to the extent the government then goes and violates all these other rules and says, here's all this free electricity and go build wherever you want, and we don't care about energy because there's no money to pay for that, and there's no political will to do that. So I think the practical reality is that you have the mag seven or mag eight have more power. And when they look at that calculus, I don't think politicians want that at all either side. [01:12:29] S0: You know, I did a calculation this week. I was looking at the phenomenal impact that agents are having inside of our venture capital firm launch, and we're spending 50,000... $4,050,000 Say the dollars name [01:12:41] S2: of your venture capital Launch. Launch. Thank you. Launch.com. Where can I go to learn more about that? [01:12:45] S0: To launch.com. You. [01:12:47] S2: Thank you very much.