All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
01:18:29 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:18:29] S1: would be... Yeah. [01:18:30] S0: Yeah. And if they don't, if the data centers and the... And these governors whose job it is to fight for their people and get the best deals, just like it's the company's job to get the best location, the best deal for their shareholders, if they can't come to an arrangement, again, these things can be put in Canada. These things can be put in Mexico. These things can be put anywhere. And we have Starlink and FiberLines. It's extremely easy extremely easy. It's very common to run fiber cables everywhere around the world. It's an incredibly speed efficient system we have here. It's not like twenty years ago where, you know, loading your Gmail in Japan was extremely difficult. It's very easy. It's very crisp. We have CDN technology. It's gonna be a no brainer, let alone the prescience of SpaceX, which is severely undervalued as a stock and as SpaceX, Tesla. I'm... I've been buying shares through this whole insanity. They're going to space to bring them up there. Now seems like a pretty brilliant idea, doesn't it, Chamath? Like, if they're gonna block it, all of a sudden, once again, Elon soar around the corner. Did he not? [01:19:32] S2: Well, do you remember, I think we talked about this, which is, you know, we said his ninety day out with Anthropic is probably because he negotiated and he saw around the corner, not the other way around. Because people used to think, oh my god, this is really bad for SpaceX if they could pull the ripcord, that's not gonna happen. It's now the question is does it happen the other way around?
01:19:32 · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis
[01:19:32] S2: Well, do you remember, I think we talked about this, which is, you know, we said his ninety day out with Anthropic is probably because he negotiated and he saw around the corner, not the other way around. Because people used to think, oh my god, this is really bad for SpaceX if they could pull the ripcord, that's not gonna happen. It's now the question is does it happen the other way around? [01:19:52] S0: It's it's pretty interesting. I think Elon and the Anthropic team have a pretty positive working relationship. [01:19:58] S2: Oh, this has nothing... Hold on, I wanna be clear. Has nothing to do with their working relationship or whether Anthropic is a good or bad company or SpaceX is a good or bad company. This has nothing to do with that. This is a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet will dictate the answer. And the question is if spot spikes, you are economically forced to do this beyond a certain threshold. [01:20:20] S0: Okay. I I... I'll take a I'll take a slightly, other side to that. There's still a lot of acrimony between OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Elon. Elon has aligned himself very deeply with the Anthropic team. They have an incredible working relationship. I don't think he just throws it open to Spot even if that was the most short term, midterm economic model. Let me finish this. [01:20:41] S2: That's not what I'm saying. Let me finish. You're not you're listening to what I'm saying. [01:20:43] S0: Just let me finish, then you can counter. You can... You guys are allowed to let me finish my sentences. I know that's hard to believe.
01:20:43 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:20:43] S0: Just let me finish, then you can counter. You can... You guys are allowed to let me finish my sentences. I know that's hard to believe. [01:20:48] S2: Not if you miscast what I'm saying. [01:20:49] S0: You can totally respond to it. Just take a take a beat. Moving to spot might be the the right ruthless economic decision. I think that the the decision made by Elon is gonna be in part informed by his relationship with Sam Altman or lack of one, and by, the loyalty of Anthropic and their success making them a great long term partner, especially for the space data center business. So I could see him instead of throwing it up to spot saying, hey. Let's meet somewhere in the market. But that's what I think is a longer
01:20:49 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:20:49] S0: You can totally respond to it. Just take a take a beat. Moving to spot might be the the right ruthless economic decision. I think that the the decision made by Elon is gonna be in part informed by his relationship with Sam Altman or lack of one, and by, the loyalty of Anthropic and their success making them a great long term partner, especially for the space data center business. So I could see him instead of throwing it up to spot saying, hey. Let's meet somewhere in the market. But that's what I think is a longer [01:21:22] S2: I'm not saying throw it up to spot. What I'm saying is when spot moves sufficiently, even a long term offtake moves so much that existing contracts are negative EV. And so you just gotta move existing contracts to positive EV territory. And if you can get out in ninety days and reprice something into positive EV territory, you should. So my point is more that beyond a certain point, if a bunch of data centers get slowed down, a bunch of constraint happens, there's gonna be a lot less capacity than people think. The dollar cost per megawatt per month is gonna go through the roof. The dollar cost of a GPU hour is gonna go through the roof, and the people that will be willing to pay the premium are going to be the ginormous companies with huge balance sheets. And so you could just sell it to Google or Meta if you wanted to. You don't have to sell it to OpenAI.
01:21:22 · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis
[01:21:22] S2: I'm not saying throw it up to spot. What I'm saying is when spot moves sufficiently, even a long term offtake moves so much that existing contracts are negative EV. And so you just gotta move existing contracts to positive EV territory. And if you can get out in ninety days and reprice something into positive EV territory, you should. So my point is more that beyond a certain point, if a bunch of data centers get slowed down, a bunch of constraint happens, there's gonna be a lot less capacity than people think. The dollar cost per megawatt per month is gonna go through the roof. The dollar cost of a GPU hour is gonna go through the roof, and the people that will be willing to pay the premium are going to be the ginormous companies with huge balance sheets. And so you could just sell it to Google or Meta if you wanted to. You don't have to sell it to OpenAI. [01:22:15] S0: Okay, Sacks. The really interesting part of all this, just to dip into the science corner, is these, this infrastructure does two things. Right? Inference, people using the product every day, and then building the next model. If you want to run away with the next model, cornering compute at any price is a huge advantage. So for Google, which has been behind, if they use all their compute to makes their make their model or if Microsoft or Nvidia decide they want to start accelerating their internal models, which they have, this could be... This could determine who has the best frontier model over to you, Sacks. Final word.
01:22:53 · David Sacks
[01:22:53] S1: I'll say something very quickly. When you're talking about infrastructure of this magnitude, these gigawatt power data centers, they cost around $50,000,000,000. Okay? Nobody can make that investment in conditions of uncertainty. The last thing you ever want to do is break ground on a project like that and then when you're halfway through, you get enjoined, you end up with a strike by your workers or some community group that stops you. You really need conditions of certainty before you make an investment like that. And I think that we're headed towards conditions of great uncertainty. You've got our biggest data center states where there's basically been a regime change And all those governors are basically indicating that they favor moratorium until x y z happens. Right? They can be a little bit different in what that is. So my sense is that, look, it may not be a conspiracy to hurt the Trump economy. It may just be the reality of what's going on. But I would expect that I think there'll still be meaningful capex in 2027 as a base case, meaning those fully permitted approved projects can move forward or finish. But I think by 2028, I would expect that the pipeline will either be closed or significantly reduced and that will have a big economic impact. And I do think that Democrats will try to blame the president for that even though they will be solely responsible for this.