00:17:07 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:17:07] S2: This week, we're gonna get the fed decision. Does it matter? Does it actually impact stocks in the way that maybe it did, you know, ten years ago?
00:17:14 · Ryan Detrick
[00:17:14] S1: Well, let's put it this way. Last... He's only been, wars have been here three times. Right? Three... This is his fourth meeting. The market sold off pretty hard that day of every single time. So I don't think it's necessarily what he said. I think it's what he probably didn't say. He didn't wanna say anything. Then the market did come back. So big picture on us with the Fed. You know? Yes. They've hiked once. You look at what they're saying though. I mean, seem like they're pretty dovish. Even the most hawkish people, when you look at those fed. Plots, the most hawkish people out there are saying there's only going be two hikes next year, Anthony. I mean, I believe this is a Fed that does not really want to hike. You look at what the two year is saying, you look at Fed fund futures are saying, yeah, maybe a little bit more hawkishness is priced in. We're taking the other side of that and think they're going be a little bit more net dovish coming out. Maybe they do one more hike in December. And then we think they're probably going to take a break. And you look at '97 is the one time they did it a one and done. One hike and then done. Marker is up over 30% a year later back then. We do think they probably do one more hike this year. But I think again, what's being priced in is major, major hawkishness and we're not so sure that's the play here. So we'll see. He doesn't like to say anything. I mean, so we'll just, we'll find out. We might not learn much tomorrow when the Fed meeting happens. But the reality is I think one more hike and that's probably it.
00:18:22 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:18:22] S2: Do you think it's positive or negative that he doesn't like to say anything? [00:18:25] S1: I think it's positive. I think it's fine with me. I'm... I don't know. I started this industry a long time ago. Nobody talked the Fed. So like it's like all these different opinions and I kind of like the idea. Like let's say less. Let's let the market do its thing. Let's let free markets work a little bit. I mean, now you can go down a real rabbit hole that you need a Fed if you're a big free markets guy. I'm not going that route. But the reality is, he doesn't want to say anything. Now the problem is everybody else loves the camera. All these other Fed members, like one of them says one thing, one says another. So kind of you just lose your mind with a lot of this. But, yeah, I'm not so sure... Well, let's put it this way. If earnings keep doing what they're doing, profit margins hitting new highs, earnings keep going higher and you get maybe a little bit more of a net dovish Fed. I mean, are the things that matter a lot more than, you know, Warsh says this at one cocktail hour and Warsh says this at one breakfast hour. I think we... Those things... He's back to the Alan Greenspan playbook, which again is just not saying a lot, but not really saying anything at the same time.
00:19:16 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:19:16] S2: I don't know what the latest data is, but the last time I looked, about 15% or so of companies had reported and 88% of them had beat on an EPS basis. And that just feels like fundamentally, of course, the stock market should go higher. Companies are making more money. They're becoming more valuable. Mhmm. If you just boil it down to, like, are companies improving? Are they becoming more efficient? Are they becoming more profitable? And if that leads to higher prices, then almost everything else seems like noise in the short term.
00:19:44 · Ryan Detrick
[00:19:44] S1: Yeah. You're right. And what did the banks say? They kicked it off. They said the consumer is still pretty solid. They said loans are still happening. People are still going out there spending, and we have a lot of big names and the retail names still have to report. But overall, it's been really positive once again. And it's not just like we're talking about the S and P 500. I mean, look at like forward twelve month earnings on small caps, on mid caps, on SMID. I mean, have been going like straight up. Okay. It's not just large caps that are starting to make a lot more money in this type of environment. And look around the globe. I mean, Europe's I know Europe's kind of a mess. You turn on TV. What in the world's going on over there? But their economy still looks pretty solid. I mean, it sounds wild when you look at TV, but their earnings are still pretty solid. Or emerging markets obviously are still solid. Now, yeah, a lot of that's because of South Korea and the incredible growth we're seeing out of the chip trade. But the reality or the AI memory trade, the reality is this is a global bull market being led by global earnings, not just US large cap. It's not just seven stocks anymore. There are a lot of companies, that are making money. And this earnings season is not done. So yeah, I'm aware, you know, things could change a little bit, but it's been a start so far.
00:20:43 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:20:43] S2: You mentioned that the, consumer is still spending, and there's a data point that blew my mind. I actually had to go look to make sure that this was true. Recreational products, pools, RVs, boats, etcetera, are up, But ticker pool, p o o l, is up 20% in October. Yeah. What is going on there?