00:18:22 · Anthony Pompliano, Ryan Detrick
[00:18:22] S2: Do you think it's positive or negative that he doesn't like to say anything? [00:18:25] S1: I think it's positive. I think it's fine with me. I'm... I don't know. I started this industry a long time ago. Nobody talked the Fed. So like it's like all these different opinions and I kind of like the idea. Like let's say less. Let's let the market do its thing. Let's let free markets work a little bit. I mean, now you can go down a real rabbit hole that you need a Fed if you're a big free markets guy. I'm not going that route. But the reality is, he doesn't want to say anything. Now the problem is everybody else loves the camera. All these other Fed members, like one of them says one thing, one says another. So kind of you just lose your mind with a lot of this. But, yeah, I'm not so sure... Well, let's put it this way. If earnings keep doing what they're doing, profit margins hitting new highs, earnings keep going higher and you get maybe a little bit more of a net dovish Fed. I mean, are the things that matter a lot more than, you know, Warsh says this at one cocktail hour and Warsh says this at one breakfast hour. I think we... Those things... He's back to the Alan Greenspan playbook, which again is just not saying a lot, but not really saying anything at the same time.
00:19:16 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:19:16] S2: I don't know what the latest data is, but the last time I looked, about 15% or so of companies had reported and 88% of them had beat on an EPS basis. And that just feels like fundamentally, of course, the stock market should go higher. Companies are making more money. They're becoming more valuable. Mhmm. If you just boil it down to, like, are companies improving? Are they becoming more efficient? Are they becoming more profitable? And if that leads to higher prices, then almost everything else seems like noise in the short term.
00:19:44 · Ryan Detrick
[00:19:44] S1: Yeah. You're right. And what did the banks say? They kicked it off. They said the consumer is still pretty solid. They said loans are still happening. People are still going out there spending, and we have a lot of big names and the retail names still have to report. But overall, it's been really positive once again. And it's not just like we're talking about the S and P 500. I mean, look at like forward twelve month earnings on small caps, on mid caps, on SMID. I mean, have been going like straight up. Okay. It's not just large caps that are starting to make a lot more money in this type of environment. And look around the globe. I mean, Europe's I know Europe's kind of a mess. You turn on TV. What in the world's going on over there? But their economy still looks pretty solid. I mean, it sounds wild when you look at TV, but their earnings are still pretty solid. Or emerging markets obviously are still solid. Now, yeah, a lot of that's because of South Korea and the incredible growth we're seeing out of the chip trade. But the reality or the AI memory trade, the reality is this is a global bull market being led by global earnings, not just US large cap. It's not just seven stocks anymore. There are a lot of companies, that are making money. And this earnings season is not done. So yeah, I'm aware, you know, things could change a little bit, but it's been a start so far.
00:20:43 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:20:43] S2: You mentioned that the, consumer is still spending, and there's a data point that blew my mind. I actually had to go look to make sure that this was true. Recreational products, pools, RVs, boats, etcetera, are up, But ticker pool, p o o l, is up 20% in October. Yeah. What is going on there?
00:21:01 · Ryan Detrick
[00:21:01] S1: That's a good one because I I mentioned this two weeks ago when I was looking at, like, you know, 110 different sectors. And two weeks ago, when everything was crazy, everything's all bad it was, the recreation products group was the best one, up like 15%. Then it followed up with like another 8% gain last week. And you look, yeah, there's only so many stocks that are in there. It's not like pools said everybody's going to buy a pool. I want be very clear or RVs, pools, the recreation stuff, the fun stuff. But I think they said, it's not as bad as people think and people are realizing maybe money's rotating from some of the high flyers to some of the areas that might do a little bit better with lower interest rates, specifically housing stocks which did really well. And now some of these recreation things that maybe you do potentially in your house. I think the bottom line to us, the consumer is not dead. Everybody keeps saying the consumer is dead. Just... But two weeks ago, maybe give or take, we got retail sales, Anthony. The last three months, restaurants are running at annualized like 10 or 11% restaurants and bars. I mean, that's... I I don't know. Call me old fashioned. I don't think that's a bad thing. If people are going out to restaurants and spending, that's still a positive thing. But the market is smart and all. If we can complain or we can love what's happening, it doesn't really matter. The message of the market, again, is some of these beaten down areas on the consumer side have just come soaring back like you just mentioned with pool. And the reality is I think that's a leading indicator. This economy is gonna continue to be strong into, into next year.
00:22:20 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:22:20] S2: Now one thing regardless of who is in office is true is that they're gonna keep printing money. They're pretty clear about that. And so I immediately jumped to, okay, well, Bitcoin, gold, land, those feel like three assets that, you know, benefit from that. What is your guys' current view or or outlook on those three?