00:21:01 · Ryan Detrick
[00:21:01] S1: That's a good one because I I mentioned this two weeks ago when I was looking at, like, you know, 110 different sectors. And two weeks ago, when everything was crazy, everything's all bad it was, the recreation products group was the best one, up like 15%. Then it followed up with like another 8% gain last week. And you look, yeah, there's only so many stocks that are in there. It's not like pools said everybody's going to buy a pool. I want be very clear or RVs, pools, the recreation stuff, the fun stuff. But I think they said, it's not as bad as people think and people are realizing maybe money's rotating from some of the high flyers to some of the areas that might do a little bit better with lower interest rates, specifically housing stocks which did really well. And now some of these recreation things that maybe you do potentially in your house. I think the bottom line to us, the consumer is not dead. Everybody keeps saying the consumer is dead. Just... But two weeks ago, maybe give or take, we got retail sales, Anthony. The last three months, restaurants are running at annualized like 10 or 11% restaurants and bars. I mean, that's... I I don't know. Call me old fashioned. I don't think that's a bad thing. If people are going out to restaurants and spending, that's still a positive thing. But the market is smart and all. If we can complain or we can love what's happening, it doesn't really matter. The message of the market, again, is some of these beaten down areas on the consumer side have just come soaring back like you just mentioned with pool. And the reality is I think that's a leading indicator. This economy is gonna continue to be strong into, into next year.
00:22:20 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:22:20] S2: Now one thing regardless of who is in office is true is that they're gonna keep printing money. They're pretty clear about that. And so I immediately jumped to, okay, well, Bitcoin, gold, land, those feel like three assets that, you know, benefit from that. What is your guys' current view or or outlook on those three?
00:22:35 · Ryan Detrick
[00:22:35] S1: Yeah. We we we own all three of them. I mean, you look at our unconstrained tactical models, we can do anything we want. We're about 68% equity. So that's 32% other stuff. In the old days, that would have been 32% bonds. Well, no, that's not the way this works anymore. And I've talked with you for a while about this. Think we added gold, to our tactical models for the first time. Again, real money we run back in late March of twenty twenty three during the regional bank crisis. We have about a 1.5% allocation to Bitcoin, maybe about a 3% allocation to gold. We have some hard assets, some real assets, some other stuff. I wouldn't say like in place of stocks, it's more in place of fixed income. So we totally own bonds. You manage a lot of money, you have to own bonds. But I think to have that other stuff, diversify your diversifiers, the theme we've said for a long time. And I think this up... Yeah, I know yields have come back lately. We still think this economy strong. Nominal GDP growth, Anthony, last couple months or last couple quarters between six to 8%. We've been saying for a while, yield should stay higher at the start of this year. Everybody said, how many times is the Fed gonna cut? We said, you know, it's gonna be really hard from the cut. Didn't say they couldn't. But we've always said yields will be stubbornly high. It means bonds probably don't do as well. So you want to have something if you drop it, it hits your foot and it hurts in your portfolio like gold. I mean, not how Bitcoin hurts your foot when you drop it. But nonetheless, some Bitcoin, some gold, some hard real assets, you know, different things like that are gonna help that portfolio. This year, mean, the Barclays Ag is still I think down for the year even after what we've seen in yields, drop the last couple weeks. So those have really, really helped from a portfolio point of view. You know, if you own those things, I think you should continue to have those in your portfolio.
00:24:08 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:24:08] S2: One of the areas of finance that I am, fascinated by is the, intersection of, yield and, crypto, etcetera. Yeah. And so one one thing that, has become very popular are these, perpetual prefers that are being offered by, you know, a strategy, strive, etcetera. Have you guys looked at those? Is there conversation with clients about, hey, these like higher yielding things that are backed by this like digital credit idea?
00:24:33 · Ryan Detrick
[00:24:33] S1: No. We haven't... We've looked into them. We know about them. I'm not so sure of compliance. I live in a world of compliance. You gotta understand. We probably need to get a little more research on that, but, you know, there's there's... It just shows there's lots of different ways to do this. I mean, again, people want higher yields. I mean, that's what it is and you see what's going on with all Why are yields higher? Well, maybe it's a stronger economy. Maybe it's because there's inflation expectations. Yeah, I think so. Or it's all this incredible every time you turn around. Look, just yesterday there were three major multi tens, 20,000,000,000 deals. All these companies issuing a lot of debt. I can go make more money if I buy the debt of XYZ company versus a treasury. So that's kind of pushing all these yields higher. That's a theme again that we don't think is going to slow down. Mean, I wouldn't be shocked this time we come back in a year, this bull market's turning five, we're still higher, things are still hanging in there. And the ten year yields prior on 6%. The last five years of the 1990s when things were pretty good last I checked, we averaged 6% on the ten year yield with a nominal growth of GDP, which actually a little bit less than what we're seeing now. Now there's other factors to all of this, But think this upward bias to yields and and people wanting to get higher yields is is a theme that's gonna continue.
00:25:38 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:25:38] S2: And do you think that the chasing of yield, or the desire for yield, it hurts equities or it actually is a tailwind for the equities as well?