00:19:02 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
He pointed out that the unemployment rate has now been under 5% for roughly five years. That puts it just short of a record sixty four month stretch from 1965 to 1970. I was doing some some economic history research the other day about, you know, the the the GDP projections. You know, the most ambitious ones are what, like 30% GDP growth sustained over some period. That has like never happened in human history. I was looking back through like what what has been the best decade for GDP growth of any country anywhere [00:19:35] S2: the world? Peak. [00:19:36] S1: China has been 10% for a long time. That's great. What does it take to get to 20%? It has happened twice. Equatorial Guinea is one of them, and Guyana is another one. And both of those were countries that found offshore oil reserves Yeah. Where they could basically just sell them instantly and say, hey, come get the oil. You don't even have to rely on our infrastructure. You just show up, start drilling, take it, and we will tax it, and we will... And and it counts as our GDP because we're we're we're producing the oil here. So Equatorial Guinea at one point had like 99% of their economy oil exports or something. That's something crazy. It wound up being sort of a mixed bag like because it was like, you know, kind of like free money and it just kind of happened offshore. It didn't really revolutionize everything. It didn't take them from... It's not like they became Singapore, you know? Yeah. But it was good and they did... The government did get that money. [00:20:33] S2: China did peak at 15.2%
00:20:33 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:20:33] S2: China did peak at 15.2% [00:20:36] S1: For like a year or two. [00:20:37] S2: For one year in 1984. [00:20:40] S1: Yeah. But it is it is very difficult to to find a historical precedent for sustained 20 plus percent growth. Now you could say that like in an intelligence explosion, it's kind of akin to finding oil. It's this like it's this it's this like tokens that you can use for economic value. Same thing with oil. You can use to move things around. You can deploy it in the economy in so many places that if you can produce it, it's like the bullish... It's the most bullish case. But it was just funny because like it is extremely rare to find to find an example of of north of 20%. I mean, that's a huge amount of economic growth, especially for any any country that's at all at scale. It's really, really... [00:21:23] S2: Can you think about how electric it would be? [00:21:26] S1: It'd be amazing. Be... Yeah. It'd be it'd be incredible. [00:21:29] S2: It would fix me. [00:21:30] S1: It would. It would. Well, hopefully it happens. Lots to do though. Lots to deploy. Lots to unhobble. The models need to get even better and Yeah. They need to be adopted. [00:21:42] S2: If you were a hedge fund hoping to survive to get to 30% sustained GDP growth in The United States, you maybe didn't do that well this week because you may have exploded. [00:21:56] S1: Yeah. Lot of lot of headlines about hedge funds... [00:22:00] S2: They wanted explosive growth and they exploded.
00:22:00 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Praveer Melwani
[00:22:00] S2: They wanted explosive growth and they exploded. [00:22:03] S1: They got the exploded part, but that's it. Has any... Have any of them actually blown up fully? Like had to sell order books or sell sell holdings in blocks or do any of that? [00:22:18] S2: Think that was certainly happening yesterday. [00:22:20] S1: It might be happening like over the course of the next couple days. Because a lot of these are running leverage. And so at the very least, if their book is in semis... [00:22:31] S2: This was in this was in Bloomberg. So hedge fund Vara plunges 33% in brutal October for AI stocks. [00:22:38] S1: That's so much. [00:22:41] S2: Coffee's hedge fund, Kirkswald, had worst ever month in October. Mhmm. Wallach to return some capital following brutal October. [00:22:49] S4: Mhmm. [00:22:50] S2: Ex Moore money manager to return cash from his hedge fund, Millennium, ex Citigroup banker. That's something else. [00:23:00] S1: One of them hired a Citigroup banker to lead India operations. [00:23:02] S2: There you go. [00:23:03] S1: They're just expanding. They're like, do nothing. Win. I guess they're doing fine. Yeah. A hedge fund trading... [00:23:10] S2: Oh, interesting. So there's a hedge fund coach Yeah. Denise Scholl had multiple clients just cancel their appointment yesterday. It's like one of those things like you're... If you're in the middle of chaos Yeah. You often don't necessarily need to just talk it out for an hour. You need to solve your [00:23:27] S1: problem real time and you can
00:23:27 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:23:27] S1: problem real time and you can [00:23:28] S2: you can figure out what happened later. Sure. So For sure. I think that makes sense. Ad[00:23:32] S1: Well, let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. [00:23:42] S2: Dowman Eddie said, do wellness checks with your public equity TMT friends today. They need you, but not Lead Edge Capital. Hearing public fund is up 32% gross year to date What? And down only 1.2% yesterday. [00:23:57] S1: That's sick. [00:23:58] S2: Owning tech that trades at single digit ARR and low double digit CF multiples works after all. Yeah. Yeah. Contrarian. Yeah. Some of the last contrarians. [00:24:09] S1: It's great. [00:24:10] S2: Great. We have some big stories that we we need to [00:24:13] S1: Let's rip rope. We need [00:24:14] S2: to get into. Take me over. [00:24:15] S1: Where you want to go?
00:24:15 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:24:15] S1: Where you want to go? [00:24:16] S2: Wildlife at our new LA Wildlife Bridge. Couldn't wait for the ribbon cutting. Really? A coyote has become the first documented animal to use the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing over the 101 Freeway. So again, we were once This guy. Minorly cancelled over over talking about this bridge, which we're very much in favor of. But effectively a mega project. Yeah. You know? This thing has been in the works for years and years and years and years and it seems... I mean, I'm kind of... It it feels a little feels a little cyberpunk, you know? You have this like massive structure and then they just try to trick the animals into thinking like this is just a normal hillside Yeah. Crossover. But really really fantastic news. I think it's, you know, coming in well north of a $100,000,000 for this bridge. [00:25:10] S1: Well, that's not bad. I I I... For some reason, had earmarked it like 10,000,000,000. So like if you're telling me it's a 100 mil, I'm I'm 100% Yeah. [00:25:20] S2: The crazy thing is I don't know how you actually get down because there's like a two story drop. [00:25:25] S1: Well, they're gonna build more of the bridge to like smooth it out. [00:25:28] S2: I... Crazy because it's like you you would Yeah. You would think that the right thing to do would be able to build like a bunch of small bridges, you know? But maybe animals... $1,000,000 [00:25:39] S1: bridges.
00:25:39 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:25:39] S1: bridges. [00:25:39] S2: Yeah. Maybe animals talk amongst themselves and they're like, yeah, there's an amazing bridge down the 101 over here. You gotta check... It's a little bit out of the way, but like it's just so scenic, you know. [00:25:48] S1: I wonder if the bridge is too narrow, the animals won't think that it's for them and it needs to kind of blend in and feel like a continuation of the the hillside there. But I mean, I... That they're... [00:25:59] S2: What if we built... What if we built... If built... Or more.... Thousands of animal bridges and and... But but had data centers inside them. Secret data centers. [00:26:08] S1: I would be very much in favor of building a bridge every mile at this size and scale or build build... Just cover the cover the freeways entirely. Just put them... I mean, you... If you can't build them underground You wanna be... Build them... Just build a... [00:26:23] S2: Constantly in tunnels. You don't want to... [00:26:26] S1: I don't care. I'll turn on the lights in my car. It's fine. I drive in the night all the time. It's no big deal. Like that does not matter to me at all. I don't I don't need... I'll I'll have... [00:26:34] S2: You want you want California [00:26:35] S1: to Turn earmark the entire one zero one [00:26:37] S2: You want giant... California to earmark a few $100,000,000,000? [00:26:41] S1: Yeah. Why not? We got the money. We got the people. We'll just build it.