01:17:16 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tae Kim, Brian Chesky, Dylan Field
[01:17:16] S1: Yeah. It's almost like the whole industry is on a merry-go-round, but they're you know, it's like a Spider Man meme with like, you know, guns. Everyone's kinda just like going around. Yeah. Very, very What are your [01:17:28] S0: expectations for the SpaceX IPO? What does that do to the market? They sort of jump straight into the mag seven in terms of valuation. Are they gonna suck up liquidity? [01:17:36] S3: Call. It's really it's really tough to tell without that that s one. Yeah. We'll see it first and, you know, all we have is like these spot leaks and [01:17:44] S0: Yeah. [01:17:44] S3: You know, Darling can now with the, you know, selling the the the AI compute classes Mhmm. To Anthropic. I mean, the valuation is extremely extremely high. Even even the d one capital guy who who's up, you know [01:18:02] S0: Dan Sunheim. [01:18:02] S8: On Facebook. [01:18:03] S3: Yeah. He he was interviewed on on on Oshana's. [01:18:06] S0: He's Yeah. [01:18:07] S3: Show. You could tell if you just read his body language, he's like, wow. This is a really high multiple. I mean, go back and listen to it. Even he even though he's gonna benefit from it, like, he's like, wow. This is really high. [01:18:19] S6: Yeah. So [01:18:20] S0: I mean, a lot of SpaceX investors were happy with, you know, investing that 60,000,000,000 when it was doing 10,000,000,000 revenue and had great margins, and it's a completely different business. Both have evaluations side.
01:18:20 · John Coogan, Tae Kim
[01:18:20] S0: I mean, a lot of SpaceX investors were happy with, you know, investing that 60,000,000,000 when it was doing 10,000,000,000 revenue and had great margins, and it's a completely different business. Both have evaluations side. [01:18:33] S3: To them. They saw stuff that they'll mean, like, you know, the launch costs going down and it's and Starlink coming out of nowhere and adding billions of, you know, unbelievable telecom business total Yeah. Custom market. It's great. But, like, 1.5, 1,750,000,000,000 off those Starlink [01:18:50] S0: revenue numbers. Like Hey. What what what was this? From Gavin Baker. He was saying, like, Elon has just always delivered for shareholders, and that means that he can marshal unlimited capital at all times. And And it just [01:19:03] S3: continues. You know, I'm just hesitant. Like, you know, at those extreme valuations, that's less upside for a retail investor. [01:19:10] S0: Oh, sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Hard to imagine, like, the the the test loss scenario. [01:19:15] S3: Yeah. The passive indexes, if they go in at that price, that valuation, like, on the next downturn, it's just I just I just wish Anthropic went out first. [01:19:26] S0: Sure. [01:19:26] S3: Right? Because the numbers are dramatically real. I mean, OpenAI probably is accelerating now with Codex too. [01:19:32] S0: Yeah. Yeah. [01:19:33] S3: And, you you know, that that will help things a lot better than, you know, [01:19:37] S0: you know Than SpaceX. Oh, sure. Sure.
01:19:37 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Tae Kim, Immad Akhund
[01:19:37] S0: you know Than SpaceX. Oh, sure. Sure. [01:19:39] S1: Sure. Yeah. Interesting thing right now looking at the valuations of the Mag seven and then you add SpaceX in there and then you add, you Anthropic and OpenAI and SpaceX will look potentially make Anthropic and OpenAI look cheap on just like a But multiple then it still looks very expensive versus let's say like a meta, right? Yeah. Sitting at 1 and a half trillion Yeah. With with one of the best businesses of all time. Yeah. I did I did wanna ask you about Meta, your kind of updated mental model. They obviously had a big painful round of of layoffs today to be able to afford their inference bill. I'm I'm joking there but it does seem like, you know, they're effectively whatever they're saving on on comp, they're just sort of reinvesting into AI. AI, both CapEx, but also their their inference bills. How are you [01:20:38] S3: I I you asked asked me the same question, you know, six, seven weeks ago and, you know, I think reported an unbelievable quarter. I mean, if they're growing at 33%, like, crazy amounts of profits, like, there's market set skepticism that they could do well in AI models, but, you know, there's also the plan b. Like, you could say the same thing about what happened with Elon and x AI. Like, they were able to there's so much demand in this megatrend hypercycle [01:21:06] S5: Mhmm.
01:21:06 · Immad Akhund, Tae Kim, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[01:21:06] S5: Mhmm. [01:21:06] S3: That even if they falter a bit, they could sell compute capacity to to the highest bidder that's out there. So I I wouldn't count Meta out. I actually think, like I said, their core advertising advertising business is more durable than the Google search engine right now, which if you go, you know, it's filled with ads everywhere, it's not it's not a great experience. And a lot of that a lot of that traffic is gonna shift over to AI chatbot. So I if you actually look at the numbers, Meta is is their core business is very durable, has competitive advantage. It's growing still growing like a weed. I I I just wouldn't count them out. [01:21:46] S1: Yeah. Yeah. Basically, as soon as they either have an AI breakthrough or they pull back on AI, the stock has to rerate. Right? [01:21:58] S3: Yes. Yes. I mean, that's the same thing happened with with with the the metaverse stuff. Yeah. As if they start cutting back spending, you rerate rerate higher because all all those losses don't don't hit the income statement. [01:22:10] S0: They look tiny now. [01:22:11] S1: Yeah. It'd be so it'd be so wild to think about what Meta's stock would be doing right now if the metaverse debacle had never happened. Mhmm. Because the metaverse was like this high conviction bet on a category that was just way too early and yet AI doesn't I think you're right. And yet they feel like late on AI. I think Mark felt late or at least clearly felt behind enough to to to sort of, you know, 10 x the seriousness. So
01:22:11 · Jordi Hays, Tae Kim, John Coogan
[01:22:11] S1: Yeah. It'd be so it'd be so wild to think about what Meta's stock would be doing right now if the metaverse debacle had never happened. Mhmm. Because the metaverse was like this high conviction bet on a category that was just way too early and yet AI doesn't I think you're right. And yet they feel like late on AI. I think Mark felt late or at least clearly felt behind enough to to to sort of, you know, 10 x the seriousness. So [01:22:39] S3: I I think it's just yeah. I think they're a little more skeptical because of what happened with the metaverse where they spent tens of billions of dollars Yeah. That has pretty much gone. [01:22:49] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Becoming a Neo Cloud is a weird outcome for hyperscaler that could totally have a cloud platform but has not historically. And you would imagine that there's a whole bunch of hard won lessons that Azure, GCP, AWS went through, organizational decisions, structures, just key people in place. It feels hard to spin up immediately. At the same time, there's neo clouds that are scaling revenue extremely quickly every day. So I I I agree with you that it is it is a possibility, but a whole set of new challenges if that's the direction you
01:22:49 · John Coogan, Tae Kim
[01:22:49] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Becoming a Neo Cloud is a weird outcome for hyperscaler that could totally have a cloud platform but has not historically. And you would imagine that there's a whole bunch of hard won lessons that Azure, GCP, AWS went through, organizational decisions, structures, just key people in place. It feels hard to spin up immediately. At the same time, there's neo clouds that are scaling revenue extremely quickly every day. So I I I agree with you that it is it is a possibility, but a whole set of new challenges if that's the direction you [01:23:24] S3: guys the worst case scenario. Right? Like, they they they wanna use the AI compute capacity to make their internal businesses better with Yeah. The all the ad personalization and monetization and create this stuff. And and actually, I've been playing playing around with OpenClaw for the first five a few weeks ago. And, yeah, I've been using WhatsApp and that's the future. Everyone's gonna have a digital assistant. It's like so amazing. I ask it to give me the top 20 stories. It's powered by the latest version of Codex. Yeah. It goes out there, searches every day for me, and emails me the top 20 stories I should read. [01:23:59] S0: That's cool. [01:23:59] S3: It's really smart. Yeah. You guys should try it. It's actually amazing. Yeah. And the thing I'm thinking is like, why can't Meta do this? I mean, have this Meta AI that's [01:24:07] S0: not powerful. But,