All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
01:12:48 · Jason Calacanis
[01:12:48] S0: Just... I'm trying to let people know I have a day job beyond podcasting. I invest in a 100 companies a year. And we have 20 people. We're spending, like, $50,000 a year, I think, $4,050,000 on these subscriptions. Grok, Claude being the main ones. I estimate we're getting $2,000,000 in value from that. I estimate we're getting about a million dollars in incremental revenue for I estimate we're getting maybe 15 to 21 in incremental revenue for the dollars we spend. In other words, the velocity of our investments is going up because we've automated everything. And the velocity in which we create new media properties is going up because we've automated everything. We're building systems. And only 10 or 20% of people in corporate America are using this technology every day on a regular basis. In other words, there's somewhere between five and ten times as many people to start using this every day. And I believe when they go to AgenTik, they start using this because it's so accessible to the average human being that everything gets obstructed. You don't have to learn to do code or set up your rig or your harness. You just tell it what you want, and it uses 50 times as much. So I think there's 500 to a thousand times the need for this. When that happens, this compute is gonna go wherever it needs to go. And I can tell you what we're doing is only 70, 80% of what the frontier models are capable of. We're not solving Navier or Stokes, obviously. And so we're on the verge of ordering everybody a Mac Studio of 512 k for $20,000, which would mean $400,000 in compute on people's desktops and running local models first and then falling back to them because we don't wanna be throttled. We wanna have unmetered intelligence. So offshore data centers will be the trend of the next two years. That's what you're gonna see. And desktop usage of local models. I'll just make that prediction here.
01:14:34 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:14:34] S1: Yeah. Well, let me... Can can I, yeah, can I can I respond to that? [01:14:37] S0: So open source, obviously, is the power of that. [01:14:40] S1: I think you're onto something, Jacob. Look, when we're talking about AI regulation in the next two years, I think we need to separate... There's two different things. Right? There's federal and there's state. What the feds are gonna deal with is the the AI safety and creating a federal department of AI and all of those Orwellian sorts of risk around what could turn into censorship and surveillance and control. Okay. That's one bucket of issues. There's another bucket of issues around infrastructure which will be dealt with at the state and local level, right? And both of them are gonna play out. Now at the state and local level, I I think people are just being way too optimistic about what this election means. I mean, I'm seeing like Gavin Baker saying, oh, don't worry, you know, In a hostile, she seems totally reasonable. She's not threatening any projects and, you know, I've watched interviews with her. Look, I went and watched the interviews that Gavin watched and I don't see the things that [01:15:33] S0: I agree you. [01:15:34] S2: I agree [01:15:35] S1: does not say that existing projects are protected. [01:15:37] S2: I agree. [01:15:38] S1: She simply says that there'll be no new permits issued until they pass legislation [01:15:44] S2: You're right. [01:15:44] S1: Dealing with the issues she's talking about. [01:15:46] S2: You're a 100% [01:15:47] S0: What the issues she's talking about?
01:15:49 · David Sacks
[01:15:49] S1: Beast I'll doesn't hear I'll explain it. But look, I saw an analyst from semi analysis then come out and say that you do realize that projects that are under construction right now don't necessarily have every single permit they need to actually open for business. In other words, once you've constructed the data center, you may still have to get an air pollution permit. There's various kinds of permits that sometimes you don't get till the end. So if you take what she's saying seriously and literally that there'll be no new permits passed until this new regulatory regime comes into effect, we could end up with a bunch of stranded half finished projects. Now, I'm not saying that's necessarily gonna happen. I'm not criticizing her because I don't know what she's gonna do. She hasn't even taken office yet. I'm simply pointing out that this could go a lot of ways. You know, they could do this in a reasonable way or an unreasonable way. So you could end up with a lot of half finished projects. My base case is that the projects that are fully permitted will get done in twenty twenty seven, but I don't think there's gonna be major new projects in this new regime for a long time for the simple reason that there's no political incentive for anyone to grant a new permit or a new project. What's their incentive? Think about this. In this last election, you had both Democrats and Republicans running campaign attack ads on any politician who approved any data center. So think about if you're a politician or you're just like a civil servant who maybe wants to move up the the ladder. What is your incentive to stamp approval on anything? I don't see it. I mean, I don't see anyone who is ambitious politically wanting to stick their neck out in any way to approve anything over the next four years. So, look, I think probably the ones that are already approved and fully permitted, I think those probably get done. But the ones that are not approved yet, good luck. I think it's gonna be very difficult. So I think we get by in 2027. I think there'll still be meaningful CapEx. I get really worried about 2028. And the Democrats, I think, in a way, have a perverse incentive around this because if that CapEx tanks in 2028, they all blame Trump for that. Right?
01:18:08 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[01:18:08] S0: Yeah. But they already have set the table. They have so... Such amazing footprint right now. They're already in the poll position. Tanking the economy, I think, opens up an attack vector for them. I think they're much better off just saying, here's what we want and extract value from them. Just extract value. We want free electricity. We want schools. We want this. Just negotiate hard. And if you don't That [01:18:29] S1: would be... Yeah.
01:18:29 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:18:29] S1: would be... Yeah. [01:18:30] S0: Yeah. And if they don't, if the data centers and the... And these governors whose job it is to fight for their people and get the best deals, just like it's the company's job to get the best location, the best deal for their shareholders, if they can't come to an arrangement, again, these things can be put in Canada. These things can be put in Mexico. These things can be put anywhere. And we have Starlink and FiberLines. It's extremely easy extremely easy. It's very common to run fiber cables everywhere around the world. It's an incredibly speed efficient system we have here. It's not like twenty years ago where, you know, loading your Gmail in Japan was extremely difficult. It's very easy. It's very crisp. We have CDN technology. It's gonna be a no brainer, let alone the prescience of SpaceX, which is severely undervalued as a stock and as SpaceX, Tesla. I'm... I've been buying shares through this whole insanity. They're going to space to bring them up there. Now seems like a pretty brilliant idea, doesn't it, Chamath? Like, if they're gonna block it, all of a sudden, once again, Elon soar around the corner. Did he not? [01:19:32] S2: Well, do you remember, I think we talked about this, which is, you know, we said his ninety day out with Anthropic is probably because he negotiated and he saw around the corner, not the other way around. Because people used to think, oh my god, this is really bad for SpaceX if they could pull the ripcord, that's not gonna happen. It's now the question is does it happen the other way around?
01:19:32 · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis
[01:19:32] S2: Well, do you remember, I think we talked about this, which is, you know, we said his ninety day out with Anthropic is probably because he negotiated and he saw around the corner, not the other way around. Because people used to think, oh my god, this is really bad for SpaceX if they could pull the ripcord, that's not gonna happen. It's now the question is does it happen the other way around? [01:19:52] S0: It's it's pretty interesting. I think Elon and the Anthropic team have a pretty positive working relationship. [01:19:58] S2: Oh, this has nothing... Hold on, I wanna be clear. Has nothing to do with their working relationship or whether Anthropic is a good or bad company or SpaceX is a good or bad company. This has nothing to do with that. This is a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet will dictate the answer. And the question is if spot spikes, you are economically forced to do this beyond a certain threshold. [01:20:20] S0: Okay. I I... I'll take a I'll take a slightly, other side to that. There's still a lot of acrimony between OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Elon. Elon has aligned himself very deeply with the Anthropic team. They have an incredible working relationship. I don't think he just throws it open to Spot even if that was the most short term, midterm economic model. Let me finish this. [01:20:41] S2: That's not what I'm saying. Let me finish. You're not you're listening to what I'm saying. [01:20:43] S0: Just let me finish, then you can counter. You can... You guys are allowed to let me finish my sentences. I know that's hard to believe.